https://fsir.ihu.ac.ir/ Futures Studies Of The Islamic Revolution en daily 1 Sat, 21 Mar 2026 00:00:00 +0330 Sat, 21 Mar 2026 00:00:00 +0330 https://fsir.ihu.ac.ir/article_210522.html This study was conducted to perform a foresight analysis of the Iranian Armed Forces’ initiatives in the field of poverty alleviation. At the first stage, a comprehensive review of documents, academic literature, and international experiences was carried out to identify about 100 potential actions and influencing factors. In the next step, based on expert opinions and professional assessments, 20 key factors were selected as the main drivers, and their interrelations were examined using the cross-impact analysis method in MICMAC software. The results revealed that factors such as infrastructure improvement, development and strengthening of local markets, participation in post-crisis reconstruction, and women’s economic empowerment exert the highest level of influence within the network of variables. These drivers can serve as strategic pillars in regional development and poverty-reduction planning. Accordingly, it is recommended that the Armed Forces’ development programs focus on infrastructure enhancement, support for local markets, and promotion of women’s and youth participation, within region-based scenarios aligned with national development and social justice strategies. https://fsir.ihu.ac.ir/article_210682.html In examining the important developments in contemporary Iranian history, the bazaar cannot be seen outside of this circle. The Tobacco Movement, the Constitutional Revolution, the nationalization of the oil industry, the uprising of Khordad 15, 1963, and finally the victory of the Islamic Revolution are a chain of developments in which researchers agree that the bazaar played a role. With the coming to power of the Pahlavi government, the political position of the bazaar and its role in the civil sphere faced many restrictions, and the bazaar, along with other social forces, joined the ranks of the opponents of the Pahlavi government and played a role in the victory of the Islamic Revolution. With this description, the question of the article is whether the position of the bazaar in the public sphere will continue to be maintained and the bazaar will continue to be an actor in the civil sphere, or will we witness a change in the status of the bazaar's role? The present study, using the documentary method in data collection and the descriptive-analytical method, believes that the most likely scenario is the isolation of the market and its gradual withdrawal from the civil society arena, and consequently the loss of the functions and specific tasks of the market in the public arena, an event that would mean the elimination of one of the most important elements of civil society and public arena actors https://fsir.ihu.ac.ir/article_210577.html This study aims to investigate the role of the creative economy in compensating for fluctuations in Iran's oil-dependent revenue and to provide policy solutions for economic diversification by 2035. This descriptive-analytical study, employing a deductive approach, utilized secondary documentary and library data. The statistical population included data on Iran's creative economy and experiences of leading and emerging countries (South Korea, the UK, Australia, Japan, UAE, and the USA), with purposive sampling. Data collection tools comprised content analysis of reliable reports and domestic documents. Data validity was ensured by referencing credible sources, and reliability was confirmed through comparison with similar studies. Data analysis was conducted using quantitative and qualitative methods (content analysis and comparative analysis) and Excel software. The findings indicate that in 2023, which marked the best year for the creative economy to date, Iran's creative economy contributed approximately 2.83% to GDP. However, due to a subsequent decline in the tourism economy, this figure is estimated to decrease to around 2%. A review of experiences from South Korea, the UK, Australia, the USA, the United Arab Emirates, and Japan also showed that strategic investment in cultural, digital, and creative industries, coupled with appropriate policymaking, can provide a sustainable alternative to compensate for oil revenue fluctuations (approximately 2% of GDP in 2023). The creative economy's share of GDP could increase to 5% by 2035, serving as a suitable substitute for this revenue deficit caused by oil price fluctuations. Proposed solutions, based on global experiences, include establishing creative free zones, supporting startups, strengthening cultural tourism, developing digital infrastructure and creative product exports, international networking, reforming intellectual property laws, and developing specialized educational programs. https://fsir.ihu.ac.ir/article_210251.html This study describes the concept of Futures Literacy (FL), identifies the factors and components of this literacy and presents a framework and model of Futures Literacy (FL). To achieve this goal, the Systematic Literature Review (PRISMA) was selected, then 172 articles were found among which 84 were chosen. Using content analysis, significant phrases were extracted. Subsequently, by reviewing the obtained themes several times, 4 factors of Fancy, Training, Thinking, and Usage were identified. Next the components of FL were extracted from these factors along with their indicators. Following, the Futures Literacy Framework (FLF) was proposed, and then using Simultaneous Interpretive Structural Modelling and Weighting (SISMW), the Futures Literacy Model (FLM) was presented and the components were introduced according their importance. FLM has three levels. In the first level, the components of Communication, Dreaming, and Futures Research Methods are the most influential, and in the second level, the components of Learning, Human Agency, and Self-efficacy, and the third level consists of Critical Thinking, Awareness, Anticipation, and Uncertainty. The resulting model can be an utilized for further research in the field of education and advancement of Futures Literacy. https://fsir.ihu.ac.ir/article_210680.html The aim of this research is to study the future of the political crisis between Iran and the United States with a scenario writing approach and structural analysis of mutual effects. The research method, scenario writing, is based on qualitative content analysis. Data was collected through a review of documents, evidence, scientific articles, books, and reputable websites, and the statistical population consisted of written and digital sources related to the subject, which were purposefully sampled and analyzed. Validity and reliability were ensured through reference to reputable sources and expert review. Data analysis was conducted in two stages: structural analysis (identification of key variables) and scenario writing. The findings of the structural analysis identified two key drivers of uncertainty: the level of American interactionism/interactionism and the level of Iranian strategic flexibility/solidity. By combining these two axes, four main scenarios were developed: Fragile return, Unclear balance, Siege and stagnation, and Drift toward conflict. The findings showed that the current crisis is entrenched in a state of “uneasy equilibrium” (scenario 2), which indicates the continuation of strategic deadlock and maximum pressure against active resistance, with a constant risk of escalation. The overall conclusion suggests that breaking this deadlock requires accepting the reality of “forced coexistence” and finding a new formula for conflict management by the parties, since neither side has the ability to eliminate the other. https://fsir.ihu.ac.ir/article_210525.html In today’s fast-paced world, informed decision-making in the realm of strategic technologies has become increasingly vital. One of the most effective approaches to understanding scientific trends and identifying key actors in these domains is scientometric analysis. By examining published scientific documents—including research articles and patents—this method not only reveals the growth trajectory of knowledge but also maps the interactions among researchers, institutions, and countries.Energetic polymers, as a class of advanced materials, play a critical role in the development of modern systems for propellants, explosives, and pyrotechnics. Due to their unique properties and the technical challenges associated with their advancement, this field has attracted growing attention from research centers, defense sectors, and industrial entities. This study aims to provide a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of research related to energetic polymers. Scientific data published between 2014 and 2024 were collected from the Web of Science, Lens and Seraj databases. Using a combination of scientometric tools—VOSviewer and Bibliometrix—the analysis covers key research trends, keyword evolution, emerging topics, challenges, and future opportunities. In the review and analysis conducted for the development of the concept of sustainable innovation using the convergence of sciences required in the emerging technology of customization in the future of high-energy materials, it is proposed. Additionally, scientific collaboration networks among countries, institutions, and leading researchers were visualized and analyzed using VOSviewer to gain deeper insights into the pathways of scientific development in this area. https://fsir.ihu.ac.ir/article_210681.html This study aims to identify and structurally analyze the key factors influencing risks in research project implementation. Using a futures studies perspective and system analysis tools, five major risk areas were identified: prolonged contract procedures, excessive client expectations, delays in data collection, insufficient or inaccurate information, and the loss of key research personnel. A total of 50 influencing variables were extracted from reliable sources and institutional reports, of which 20 were selected for structural analysis through the MICMAC method. The influence–dependence map revealed three strategic drivers: quality of initial data, cloud-based data infrastructure, and team stability. Based on these, four future scenarios were developed, highlighting that achieving an optimal state (the optimistic scenario) depends on the simultaneous strengthening of technological, informational, and human resource dimensions. The study also identified major policy gaps and proposed a policy package encompassing technological, motivational, and regulatory interventions to prevent critical future states. These findings offer practical insights for evidence-based policymaking and enhancing institutional resilience in managing research-related risks. https://fsir.ihu.ac.ir/article_210517.html  The goal: Liberal democracy, as one of the most important political and ideological systems in the twentieth century, is based on principles such as human rights, individual freedoms, the rule of law, and representative democracy. These principles not only formed the basis of the political order of Western countries, but also established their hegemony on a global level, especially after the end of the Cold War. However, in the last two decades, it has faced challenges, especially with the emergence of counter-hegemonic actors such as Iran, Russia, and China. The main purpose of this article is to examine and analyze the strategies of Iran, Russia, and China towards the decline of the liberal world order. Method: To analyze the data and achieve the research results, the comparative or comparative analysis method was used, and the method of collecting data and information was library and internet.  Findings: The research findings indicate that despite the United States’ insistence on maintaining its supremacy in the liberal world order, this order has faced a serious crisis. Meanwhile, the revisionist views of the three countries of Iran, Russia, and China on the current world order have brought them together in one camp and in opposition to the unipolar order of the United States. Therefore, strategic cooperation between Iran, Russia, and China in the long term can lead to the formation of a multipolar international order in the international arena.    Conclusion: The conclusion of this article indicates that despite America's efforts to prevent the collapse of the liberal unipolar order, this order faces fundamental challenges. In this regard, the three countries of Iran, Russia, and China, by placing themselves in the Eastern camp and with an anti-hegemonic approach, have sought to create a multipolar order based on the new geometry and order of power in the international system, which could lead to the creation of post-American and post-Western equations and order on the world stage. https://fsir.ihu.ac.ir/article_210730.html This study aimed to design a futures-oriented policy-making model for education in Iran, based on the Phoenix approach (civilizational regeneration). The research employed a qualitative-integrative foresight methodology. Initially, the Futures Triangle method was applied to identify resistant pasts, emerging present trends, and possible futures. Subsequently, Causal Layered Analysis (CLA) was used to explore the educational system through discursive, structural, worldview, and myth/metaphor layers. Structural analysis using MICMAC software was conducted to identify key driving forces, and actor analysis was performed using the MACTOR method. The statistical population consisted of 15 purposively selected experts in education, futures studies, and educational policy-making. Findings revealed that the most influential drivers include educational equity gaps, generational-cultural shifts, exam-centrism, and technological transformations. Moreover, actors such as the Ministry of Education, the Supreme Council of the Cultural Revolution, and media organizations possess the highest degrees of influence and interdependence. The proposed model, inspired by the metaphor of the Phoenix, presents a regenerative framework for identity-based, institutional, and civilizational transformation in Iran’s educational policy-making system