1
Doctoral study of Iran's social issues, Kashan University
2
Faculty member of the Department of Social Sciences, University of Kashan, Iran
3
Faculty member of Kashan University
4
Director of the Cultural and Social Research Department of the Strategic Research Institute
Abstract
Identity is one of the most important challenges of the youth period, and different aspects of identity have an undeniable impact on all youth activities and affect it. Identity crisis is a situation in which, as a result of transformations and developments in the structural, cultural and communication fields, and at the same time not being recognized by the government and the world system, young people have problems and conflicts in recognizing their place in the surrounding environment, group and community. have became. The current research has investigated and written scenarios about the youth identity crisis in a 10-year horizon by using the causal layer analysis and using Mic Mac and Scenario Wizard software. In this way, by using the method of causal layer analysis and studying documents and in-depth interviews with experts, 227 key drivers of the identity crisis were identified. Then, these drivers were summarized based on the Pestel model and the layered approach, which reached 52 drivers. In the following, by using Micmac software, the influential and influential drivers are identified and finally, through Scenario Wizard, 4 scenarios are obtained for this purpose, two scenarios as pessimistic and two scenarios as optimistic.
Drivers of the pessimistic scenario: extreme disillusionment of young people from being ignored by the government, increasing gender inequality, expanding social networks, intensifying alienation of young people from the desired identity of the political system, only paying attention to pro-government forces.
Drivers of the optimistic scenario: recognition of all young people, reduction of gender inequality, expansion of social networks, increase in media literacy, reduction of alienation from the desired identity of the political system.
امیری مقدم، محدثه؛ 1398، آسیبشناسی فرهنگ لذت در میان جوانان ایرانی، مقالات برگزیده سومین همایش ملی آسیبهای اجتماعی ایران، تهران، انتشارات آگاه، جلد سوم، چاپ یکم، ص230-211.
بابایی فرد، اسد اله(1393)، بحران هویت در جامعه معاصر ایران(رویکردی نظری)، تهران، انتشارات چاپخش، چاپ اول.
باقی، عمادالدین؛ ۱۳۹۸، دینگریزی هیستریک، دین گزینی هیستریک(بررسی جامعهشناختی رشد گرایشها و جنبشهای دینی و شبه دینی اخیر)، مقالات برگزیده سومین همایش ملی آسیبهای اجتماعی ایران، تهران، انتشارات آگاه، جلد هشتم، چاپ یکم. ص124-97.
بشیریه، حسین (1379)، توسعهی سیاسی و بحران هویت ملی، فصلنامه هویت ملی، سال دوم، شمارهی5.
بیننده، مسعود(1393)، تحلیل جامعهشناختی برساخت گفتمانی هویت اجتماعی(مطالعة جوانان شهر سنندج)، تز دکتری، دانشکده روانشناسی و علوم اجتماعی، گروه جامعهشناسی
تاجالدین، محمدباقر. مدنی، سعید. حکمت پناه، شهلا؛ 1398، مطالعه جامعه شناختی بیتفاوتی اجتماعی بین شهروندان منطقه 1 تبریز، مقالات برگزیده سومین همایش ملی آسیبهای اجتماعی ایران، تهران، انتشارات آگاه، جلد هشتم، چاپ یکم. ص 154-129.
التیامینیا، رضا. رشیدی زاده، بهنام؛ 1398، هویتطلبی جدید ایرانیها در بستر جهانیشدن(مطالعه موردی: دانشجویان دانشگاه یاسوج)، فصلنامه مطالعات ملی، سال بیستم، شماره3.
جلاییپور؛ ۱۳۹۸، درباره نابرابری قومی در ایران، دومین گزارش وضعیت اجتماعی ایران (همبستگی اجتماعی و نابرابری، ۱۳۸۸-۱۳۹۶)، به اهتمام میرطاهر موسوی، تهران، انتشارات آگاه. جلد یکم، چاپ دوم. ص62-49.
جنکینز، ریچارد(1396)، هویت اجتماعی. ترجمه نازنین میرزابیگی، تهران، نشر آگاه.
حاجیانی، ابراهیم(1398)، گزارش وضعیت اجتماعی نابرابریهای قومی در ایران، دومین گزارش وضعیت اجتماعی ایران (همبستگی اجتماعی و نابرابری، ۱۳۸۸-۱۳۹۶)، به اهتمام میرطاهر موسوی، تهران، انتشارات آگاه. جلد یکم، چاپ دوم. ص346-321
فوکویاما، فرانسیس(1398)، هویت(سیاست هویت کنونی و مبارزه برای به رسمیت شناختهشدن)، ترجمه رحمن قهرمانپور، انتشارات روزنه، چاپ سوم
گل محمدی، احمد(1392)، جهانیشدن، فرهنگ، هویت، تهران، نشر نی، چاپ سوم
گیدنز، آنتونی(1398)، تجدد و تشخص(جامعه و هویت شخصی در عصر جدید)، ترجمه ناصر موفقیان، تهران، نشر نی
لطفآبادی، حسین. نوروزی، وحید(1383)، سنجش رابطه هویت دینی و ملی دانشآموزان نوجوانان ایران با نگرش آنان به جهانیشدن، مجله حوزه و دانشگاه، شماره ۴۰
نصر اصفهانی، علیرضا. استادی، رسول. حق گو، جواد(1400)، بررسی پیشرفتهای جدید در روشهای آیندهپژوهی، نشریه علمی آیندهپژوهی انقلاب اسلامی، دورة 3، ص 153-111
نوابخش، مهرداد، نیکوکار مستانه(1390)، جهانیشدن و بحران هویت جوانان، مطالعات راهبردی سیاستگذاری عمومی(مطالعات راهبردی جهانیشدن)، دورة 2، شمارة6
ولدبیگی، علیاکبر. بهروزی لک، غلامرضا(1401)، کاربرد آیندهپژوهی در جامعهشناسی توسعه. نشریه علمی آیندهپژوهی انقلاب اسلامی، دورة 3، ص 65-45
Kumaraswamy، P R(2006)، WHO AM I؟ : THE IDENTITY CRISIS IN THE MIDDLE EAST، Middle East Review of International Affairs، Vol. 10، No. 1 (March 2006)
Castells، Manuel(1997) . The Power of Identity.Vol. 2 of The Information Age: Economy، Society، and Culture.Oxford: Blackwell، 1997. Pp. xv+461.
Dombrovskis، Aivis(2016). IDENTITY AND AN IDENTITY CRISIS: THE IDENTITY CRISIS OF FIRST-YEAR FEMALE STUDENTS AT LATVIAN UNTVERSITIES AND THEIR SOCIODEMOGRAPHIC INDICATORS، https://www.researchgate.net/publication/303556790
Kurebwa، Jeffrey(2020). The Effects of Globalization on Youth Culture and Identity: A Zimbabwean Experience، Canadian Social Science، www.cscanada.net
Amiri Moghadam, Muhaddith; 2018, pathology of pleasure culture among young Iranians, selected articles of the third national conference on social harms of Iran, Tehran, Aghat Publications, volume 3, 1st edition, pp. 211-230.
Babaei Fard, Esadaleh (2013), identity crisis in contemporary Iranian society (theoretical approach), Tehran, Chapakhsh Publishing House, first edition.
Babaizadeh, Marzieh; 2017, examining the pathology of the current state of identity among the generation of the third millennium. National conference on the identity of Iranian Islamic children in the preschool period, period 1, pp. 1-20.
Baghi, Imaduddin; 2018, Hysteric Dingrizi, Hysteric Religion (Sociological study of the growth of recent religious and quasi-religious tendencies and movements), selected articles of the 3rd National Conference on Social Disadvantages of Iran, Tehran, Aghaz Publications, 8th volume, 1st edition. pp. 124-97.
Bashirieh, Hossein (1379), political development and national identity crisis, National Identity Quarterly, second year, number 5.
Binandeh, Masoud (2013), sociological analysis of the discursive construction of social identity (a study of the youth of Sanandaj), PhD thesis, Faculty of Psychology and Social Sciences, Department of Sociology
Tajuddin, Mohammad Baqer. Madani, Saeed. Hekmat Panah, Shahla; 2018, sociological study of social indifference among the citizens of Tabriz region 1, selected papers of the third national conference on social harms of Iran, Tehran, Aghah Publications, Volume 8, Edition 1. pp. 154-129.
Eltiaminia, Reza. Rashidizadeh, Behnam; 2018, the new identity of Iranians in the context of globalization (case study: students of Yasouj University), National Studies Quarterly, 20th year, number 3.
Jalaipur; 2018, about ethnic inequality in Iran, the second report on the social situation of Iran (Social Solidarity and Inequality, 2016-2018), by Mir Taher Mousavi, Tehran, Aghat Publications. First volume, second edition. pp. 49-62.
Jenkins, Richard (2016), social identity. Translated by Nazanin Mirzabigi, Tehran, Aghaz Publishing House.
Jenkins, Richard (2017), social identity, translator, Toraj Yarahamdi, Shirazeh Publications
Hajiani, Ebrahim (1398), report on the social situation of ethnic inequalities in Iran, the second report on the social situation of Iran (Social Solidarity and Inequality, 2016-2018), by Mirtaher Mousavi, Tehran, Aghah Publications. First volume, second edition. pp. 321-346
Renji Jafarodi, Nima (1402), a forward-looking approach in compiling the 7th development plan, scientific journal of future studies of the Islamic Revolution, period 4, pp. 131-151
The third national conference of Iran's social harms, Tehran, Aghah Publications, 8th volume, 1st edition. pp. 146-125
Alikhani, Ali Akbar (2013), Theoretical foundations of identity and identity crisis, Tehran, Jihad Dadaneshgahi Research Institute of Humanities and Social Sciences, first edition.
Enayatullah, Sohail (2008), Questioning the future: Future research as a tool for organizational and social transformation. Tehran: Publications of the Future Research Center of Defense Science and Technology.
Inayatullah Sohail. Milohich, Ivana (2008), future research with the method of analyzing the layers of causes (Volume 1), translator; Mehdi Mobsari, Maryam Yousefian, Shakib Publications
Fukuyama, Francis (2018), Identity (current identity politics and the struggle for recognition), translated by Rahman Kahramanpour, Rosenh Publications, third edition
Golmohammadi, Ahmed (2012), Globalization, Culture, Identity, Tehran, Nei Publishing House, third edition
Giddens, Anthony (2018), Modernity and Individuality (Society and Personal Identity in the New Age), translated by Nasser Moafaqian, Tehran, Nei Publishing
Lotfabadi, Hossein. Nowrozi, Vahid (2013), measuring the relationship between the religious and national identity of Iranian adolescent students and their attitude towards globalization, Hohze and University Magazine, No. 40
Nasr Isfahani, Alireza. A master, a messenger. Haqgo, Javad (1400), review of new developments in future research methods, Scientific Journal of Future Research of the Islamic Revolution, Volume 3, pp. 111-153
Navabakhsh, Mehrdad, Nikokar Mastane (2018), Globalization and Youth Identity Crisis, Strategic Studies of Public Policy (Strategic Studies of Globalization), Volume 2, Number 6
Wold Beigi, Ali Akbar. Behrouzi Lak, Gholamreza (1401), the application of future studies in the sociology of development. Scientific Journal of Future Research of the Islamic Revolution, Volume 3, pp. 45-65
مشکینی,ق , sohrabzadeh,M , babaiifard,A and hajiani,,E . (2023). Future research of youth identity crisis in the horizon of Iran 1410. Futures Studies Of The Islamic Revolution, 4(4), 59-96.
MLA
مشکینی,ق , , sohrabzadeh,M , , babaiifard,A , and hajiani,E . "Future research of youth identity crisis in the horizon of Iran 1410", Futures Studies Of The Islamic Revolution, 4, 4, 2023, 59-96.
HARVARD
مشکینی ق, sohrabzadeh M, babaiifard A, hajiani, E. (2023). 'Future research of youth identity crisis in the horizon of Iran 1410', Futures Studies Of The Islamic Revolution, 4(4), pp. 59-96.
CHICAGO
ق مشکینی, M sohrabzadeh, A babaiifard and E hajiani,, "Future research of youth identity crisis in the horizon of Iran 1410," Futures Studies Of The Islamic Revolution, 4 4 (2023): 59-96,
VANCOUVER
مشکینی ق, sohrabzadeh M, babaiifard A, hajiani, E. Future research of youth identity crisis in the horizon of Iran 1410. Futures Studies Of The Islamic Revolution. 2023;4(4):59-96 (In Persian).
