Futures-Oriented Risk Analysis in Research Projects: A Scenario-Based Approach Using Structural Analysis of Key Drivers

Teimoora, Fatemeh; Akbari Roshan, Mahdieh; Mokhtari, Mohammad

doi:10.47176/fsir.2026.1355

Futures-Oriented Risk Analysis in Research Projects: A Scenario-Based Approach Using Structural Analysis of Key Drivers

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

Fatemeh Teimoora ¹

Mahdieh Akbari Roshan ²

Mohammad Mokhtari ³

¹ PhD in Economics, Tarbiat Modares University

² Ph.D. in Monetary and Financial Economics, Faculty of Economics, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.

³ M.A. in Economics, Faculty of Economics, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.

10.47176/fsir.2026.1355

Abstract

This study aims to identify and structurally analyze the key factors influencing risks in research project implementation. Using a futures studies perspective and system analysis tools, five major risk areas were identified: prolonged contract procedures, excessive client expectations, delays in data collection, insufficient or inaccurate information, and the loss of key research personnel. A total of 50 influencing variables were extracted from reliable sources and institutional reports, of which 20 were selected for structural analysis through the MICMAC method. The influence–dependence map revealed three strategic drivers: quality of initial data, cloud-based data infrastructure, and team stability. Based on these, four future scenarios were developed, highlighting that achieving an optimal state (the optimistic scenario) depends on the simultaneous strengthening of technological, informational, and human resource dimensions. The study also identified major policy gaps and proposed a policy package encompassing technological, motivational, and regulatory interventions to prevent critical future states. These findings offer practical insights for evidence-based policymaking and enhancing institutional resilience in managing research-related risks.

Keywords

Research projects

Risk management

Foresight

Scenario planning

Structural analysis

MICMAC

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