Scenario Writing for Desirable Future Universities in the Perspective of 1404

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 Corresponding author: master of the history and philosophy of education, Faculty of Humanities, Tarbiyat Modarres University

2 Assistant professor at the Faculty of Management, imam Hussein Comprehensive University, Tehran, Iran

3 Assistant professor at the Department of Futures Study, Imam Hussein Comprehensive University

4 Researcher of the Center for Human Resource Studies, Faculty of Management, Imam Hussein University

Abstract

As the intellectual institutions of the societies, universities and higher education institutions of the world, especially of Iran, firstly need to identify trends in future changes, and secondly, direct plans toward a model of futurology and strategic foresight. The point arising here relates to the question of what the future scenarios of the universities of the Islamic Republic of Iran will be in the perspective of 1404 (2025). This is an applied research following futures study method that contains review of resources, scenario writing through critical uncertainty approach, and expert panel. Four scenarios were finally proposed as future scenarios of the university including exclusive competition market: universities as interactive creators institutions for training common people, and universities as interactive institutions for training elites; competition free market: universities as core institutions for training elites; uncompetitive market: the university as a nuclear and elite institution; exclusive demanded multilateral market: universities as the main institute and common people trainers.

Keywords


Berg, E. L., Magnani, J., Warnock, R. A., Robinson, M. K., & Butcher, E. C. (1992). Comparison of L-selectin and E-selectin ligand specificities: the L-selectin can bind the E-selectin ligands sialyl Lex and sialyl Lea. Biochemical and biophysical research communications, 184(2), 1048-1055.
Dator, J. (1996). The knowledge base of futures studies.
De Boer, H., Huisman, J., Klemperer, A., van der Meulen, B., Neave, G., Theisens, H., & van der Wende, M. (2002). Academia in the 21st century: An analysis of trends and perspectives in higher education and research. Adviesraad voor het Wetenschaps-en Technologie-beleid.
Godet M., Roubelat F. (1996) "Creating the future: The use and misuse of scenarios", Technological Forecasting And Social Change, 29(2): 164-171.
Hirsch, W. Z., & Weber, L. E. (1999). Challenges facing higher education at the millennium. AMERICAN COUNCIL ON EDUCATION & Oryx Press.
Huss, W. R., & Honton, E. J. (1987). Scenario planning—what style should you use?. Long range planning, 20(4), 21-29.
Ringland, G., & Schwartz, P. P. (1998). Scenario planning: managing for the future. John Wiley & Sons.
Saussois, J. M. (2006). Scenarios, international comparisons, and key variables for educational scenario analysis.
Schoemaker, P.J. H. (1995). Scenario Planning: A Tool for Strategic Thinking. Sloan Management Review, 37(2), 25-40.
Scott, P. (1995). The meanings of mass higher education. McGraw-Hill Education (UK).
Verso, M., & Agnelli, G. (2003). Venous thromboembolism associated with long-term use of central venous catheters in cancer patients. Journal of Clinical Oncology, 21(19), 3665-3675.
Vincent‐Lancrin, S. (2006). What is changing in academic research? Trends and futures scenarios. European Journal of Education, 41(2), 169-202.