Meta-analysis of scenario planning method in futures studies

Document Type : Original Article


1 Corresponding author: M.Sc., Faculty of Civil Engineering, Khajeh Nasir al-Din Tusi University of Technology, Tehran, Iran

2 Assistant Professor, Center for Monitoring and Future Studies, Imam Hossein University


Scenario planning is one of the most widely used methods and one of the specific methods of futures studies. The use of this method for future study projects in Iran has become very widespread in recent years and researchers have used this method in various subjects in their research. This study examines all Iranian scientific research articles using the scenario planning method and with the criteria of having a specific case study, relevance to the future and correct use of the method, has selected one hundred articles published in the last five years for detailed and final review. Then, using the meta-analysis method, the selected articles are examined and they are included with 12 indicators; heuristic or normative, subject, time horizon, source, data type, presence or absence of fluidity in using the method, combination or non-combination of the method (scenario planning) with other methods, monolayers or multilayered, interaction-oriented or expert-centered, creative-oriented or data-driven, Intradisciplinary or Interdisciplinary and the use or non-use of software, and finally provides recommendations on the use of scenario planning in future research projects in Iran.


Smiley face