1
Corresponding author: M.Sc., Faculty of Civil Engineering, Khajeh Nasir al-Din Tusi University of Technology, Tehran, Iran
2
Assistant Professor, Center for Monitoring and Future Studies, Imam Hossein University
Abstract
Scenario planning is one of the most widely used methods and one of the specific methods of futures studies. The use of this method for future study projects in Iran has become very widespread in recent years and researchers have used this method in various subjects in their research. This study examines all Iranian scientific research articles using the scenario planning method and with the criteria of having a specific case study, relevance to the future and correct use of the method, has selected one hundred articles published in the last five years for detailed and final review. Then, using the meta-analysis method, the selected articles are examined and they are included with 12 indicators; heuristic or normative, subject, time horizon, source, data type, presence or absence of fluidity in using the method, combination or non-combination of the method (scenario planning) with other methods, monolayers or multilayered, interaction-oriented or expert-centered, creative-oriented or data-driven, Intradisciplinary or Interdisciplinary and the use or non-use of software, and finally provides recommendations on the use of scenario planning in future research projects in Iran.
اسلاتر، ریچارد و هاتکینسون، فرانس. (1386). نواندیشی برای هزاره نوین: مفاهیم، روشها و ایدههای آیندهپژوهی (ترجمه عقیل ملکیفر، وحید وحبدی مطلق و سید احمد ابراهیمی). تهران: موسسه آموزش و تحقیقاتی صنایع دفاعی.
طاهریدمنه، محسن؛ ذاکری، علی و اسدنیا، ابوالفضل. (1401). فراتحلیل موضوعی و بررسی انتقادی پژوهشهای میانرشتهای در زمینه آیندهپژوهی. فصلنامه مطالعات میانرشتهای در علوم انسانی، 14(3)، 86-49.
عرببافرانی، محمدرضا و عیوضی، محمدرحیم. (1398). مطالعه شاخصهای ارزیابی و انتخاب روش در پژوهشهای آیندهپژوهی. فصلنامه آیندهپژوهی مدیریت، سال سیام، شماره 118، 38-23.
لعلعلیزاده، محمد و دیانت، محسن. (1400). آیندهپژوهی و سناریوسازی جایگاه قدرت منطقهای جمهوری اسلامی ایران. فصلنامه علمی مطالعات قدرت نرم، سال یازدهم، شماره اول (پیاپی 24)، 224-195.
منیعی، رضا و کمالی، حامد. (1401). فراتحلیل کیفی مطالعات آیندهپژوهی آموزش عالی در ایران: موردمطالعه، میز آیندهپژوهی آموزش عالی. فصلنامه مطالعات میانرشتهای در علومانسانی، 14(3)، 227-250.
Beck, P. W. (1982). Corporate Planning for an Uncertain Future. Long Range Planning, 15, 12-21.
Chermack, T. J., & Coons, L. M. (2015). Integrating scenario planning and design thinking: Learnings from the 2014 Oxford Futures Forum. Futures, Article in Press.
Chermack, T., Lynham, S., & Ruona, W. (2001). A Review of scenario planing literature. Future Research Quarterly, Summer, 7-31.
Decoster, J. (2003). Meta-Analysis notes. Retrieved from: http://stat-help.com
Enzer, S. (1981). Exploring Long-term Business Climates and Strategies with INTERAX. Futures, 13, 468-482.
Glass, G. V. (1976). Primary, Secondary, and meta-analysis of research. Educational researcher, 5, 3-8.
Glass, G. V., McGraw, B., & Smith, M. L. (1981). Meta-analysis in social research. Bevly Hills, CA: Sage publications.
Glen, C. Jerome, Gordon, J. Theodore. (2009). Futures Research Methodology - Version 3.0. The Millennium Project.
Godet, M. (1994). From anticipation to action: A handbook of stratégic prospective. Preface by Joseph F. Coates: UNESCO Publishing.
Godet, M., & Roubelat, F. (1996). Creating the future: the use and misuse of scenarios. Technological Forcasting and Social change, 29(2), 164-171.
Kayser, V., & Shala, E. (2020). Scenario development using web mining for outlining technology futures. Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 156 (2020), Article 120086.
Marthaler, F., WilliGesk, J., Siebe, A., & Albers, A. (2020). An explorative approach to deriving future scenarios: A first comparison of the consistency matrix-based and the catalog-based approach to generating future scenarios. 30th CIRP Design 2020, 91 (2020), 883-892.
Porter, M. (1985). Competitve Advantage: Creating and sustaining Superior Performance. New York: The Free Press.
Ringland, G. (1998). Scenario Planing: Managing for the Future. New York: John Wiley and Sons.
Schoemaker, P. H. (1995). Scenario Planning: A Tool for Strategic Thinking. Sloan Management Review, 37(2), 25-40.
Schwartz, P. (1991). The Art of Long View. New York: Bantam Doubleday Dell Publishing Group.
Streiner, D. (2003). Meta-analysis: A 12-step program. Retrieved from: http://www.Eamh.net.
VandenBerg, P., Scholten, D., Schachter, J., & Blok, K. (2021). Updating scenarios: A multi-layer framework for structurally incorporating new information and uncertainties into scenarios. Futures, 130(2021), Article 102751.
Varum, C., & Melo, C. (2010). Directions in scenario planning literature– A review of the past decades. Futures, 42, 355-369.
Esmaeilpour,A and arab bafrani,M . (2022). Meta-analysis of scenario planning method in futures studies. Futures Studies Of The Islamic Revolution, 3(2), 95-140.
MLA
Esmaeilpour,A , and arab bafrani,M . "Meta-analysis of scenario planning method in futures studies", Futures Studies Of The Islamic Revolution, 3, 2, 2022, 95-140.
HARVARD
Esmaeilpour A, arab bafrani M. (2022). 'Meta-analysis of scenario planning method in futures studies', Futures Studies Of The Islamic Revolution, 3(2), pp. 95-140.
CHICAGO
A Esmaeilpour and M arab bafrani, "Meta-analysis of scenario planning method in futures studies," Futures Studies Of The Islamic Revolution, 3 2 (2022): 95-140,
VANCOUVER
Esmaeilpour A, arab bafrani M. Meta-analysis of scenario planning method in futures studies. Futures Studies Of The Islamic Revolution. 2022;3(2):95-140 (In Persian).
