Document Type : Original Article
Authors
1
Graduated with a master's degree in crisis management, Malik Ashtar University of Technology, Tehran, Iran.
2
Graduated with a master's degree in crisis management from Malik Ashtar University of Technology, Tehran, Iran
3
Graduated with a master's degree in entrepreneurship management, Iran University of Science and Technology.
4
Professor, Department of Industrial Management and Engineering, Malek Ashtar University of Technology, Tehran, Iran
Abstract
The present study deals with the development of future scenarios of Iran-Turkey security relations using Scenario Wizard. So that by assessing needs and conducting this type of strategic research, policy makers and decision makers in Iran-Turkey relations can think of alternative options for decision making. The current type of research is applied and its investigation method is exploratory using new future research methods. In this research, based on its nature, the necessary information is collected in two ways: library method and questionnaire. Due to the fact that Micmac software and Scenario Wizard are used for data analysis, the type of questionnaire is closed and in the form of a matrix of mutual effects and surveying the opinions of experts and specialists. Finally, 7 key factors are used as basic factors in the wizard scenario. And according to numerous analyzes and using the panel of experts, the number of 4 possible scenarios as output scenarios of the scenario wizard is as follows; The first scenario: dancing with bears, the second scenario: everyone who is far away from his origin / questioning his past, the third scenario: one to the shoe... one to the nail, the fourth scenario: this is the way you are going to Turkestan. In the end, it is concluded that among the 4 possible scenarios, the first scenario: "Dancing with Bears" is more desirable, because it leads to greater convergence of Turkey with Russia and Turkey's entry into the front of revisionist countries in the international system, which leads to the reduction of relations with the United States and the creation of confrontation. And it will benefit the Islamic Republic of Iran. It is worth mentioning that the strategic and macro policies of Iran towards all its land neighbors are always the policy of interaction, friendship and brotherhood.
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