Future scenarios of Iran's demographic-economic situation through the lens of demographic window opportunity

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 Master's degree, executive management, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran

2 Assistant Professor, Faculty of Education and Islamic Thought, University of Tehran / Tehran / Iran

Abstract

The dynamism, growth and youth of a country's population as an opportunity and privilege have always been the focus of policymakers and researchers, and it is clear that "empowering the working-age population" is one of the most important wise policies that can open the horizon of growth and progress in the face of the country. Dealing with the policies of increasing the fertility rate and increasing the population in order to maintain the young image of the country has become common and general in Iran for nearly a decade, and the importance of this policy cannot be hidden or denied. But what should not be neglected in this period is the demographic window of opportunity. If the young and working-age workforce is wasted and the country cannot achieve economic growth, and at the same time, if it is accompanied by a decrease in the fertility rate, the country will face a disastrous horizon. In this research, using the future research method of scenario planning, four different scenarios of the relation of the two uncertainties of seizing the demographic window of opportunity for economic growth and the dynamics of the fertility rate and population growth have been identified and introduced (the four scenarios of "Zayndehabad", "Nazaabad", " "Zayandehviran" and "Nazaviran") and suggestions for the occurrence of the desired scenario have been presented.

Keywords

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Futures Studies Of The Islamic Revolution
Volume 3, Issue 4
Winter Quarterly
March 2023
Pages 99-116

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History

  • Receive Date: 02 February 2023
  • Revise Date: 10 February 2023
  • Accept Date: 25 February 2023
  • Publish Date: 20 February 2023

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