Futures Studies Of The Islamic Revolution

Futures Studies Of The Islamic Revolution

Providing a monitoring framework for strategic transformations in the security environment of the Islamic Republic of Iran

Document Type : Original Article

Authors
AhmadReza Mirzaei 1
Einollah Keshavarz Tork 2
Hakem Ghasemi 2
MohammadRahim Eivazi 3
Rohullah Bayat 2
1 Imam khomeini International University
2 Department of Social Sciences, Imam Khomeini International University, Qazvin
3 Head of Foresight Commission and Professor oat Shahed University
Abstract
The contemporary transformations in the West Asian region indicate the increasing potential of strategic transformations in the future of the region, which inevitably affect the actors and political units in this regional system. On this basis and with regard to the principle of preventing strategic surprises as well as early awareness of the opportunities and threats ahead in the security environment of the Islamic Republic of Iran, it is important to monitor these transformaations. In order to find a comprehensive framework for monitoring strategic transformations in this region, the present research expresses two basic question of how to view and analyze the dynamics of transformations; and also the important components and indicators for monitoring developments. In response to the first question, five security subsystems based on security interdependence derived from Bozan's security set theory were identified. In response to the second question, 51 components to monitor the security environment of the Islamic Republic in the West Asia region were obtained. This research, with a qualitative approach, has used documents and library studies to collect data and has used a descriptive analytical method to achieve the results of the research.
Keywords
Strategic transformations
Islamic Republic of Iran
Monitoring
Security environment

Smiley face

  1. Aghaee SD, Nooralivand Y. (2020). Mohit-e Amniati va Siasatgozari-e Khareji va Amniati [Security Environment and Foreign and Security Policymaking; Proposing an Analytical Model]. Journal Strategic Studies of Public Policy, 9(33), 2-23.
  2. Aghajani, S., & Motaghi, E. (2017). Senāriohā-ye maḥīyat-e amniyatī jomhūrī-ye eslāmī-e Īrān va rāhbordhā-ye koneš-e fa’al. [Scenarios of the Security Environment of the Islamic Republic of Iran and Active Response Strategies]. National Security Quarterly, 7(25), 66.
  3. Ataollahi, F., Dehnouyeh, R., & Atashbahar, U.B. (2016). Ayandeh-pezhūhi bā estefade az taknik-e pūyesh-e mahiyati. [Futurology Using Environmental Scanning Technique]. Strategic Studies in Public Policy Making Quarterly, 6(21), 7-9.
  4. Daheshyar, Hosein (2008), Liberalism, emperaturi va adam-e niaz be Tavazon [Liberalism, Empire and no Need of Balance], , the quarterly journal of political and international approaches, 5(19), 49-56
  5. Dehshiri, M., & Shahmoradi, H. (2020). Factors Determining the Security Order in West Asia Based on the Theory of Comprehensive Balance. Journal of International Relations Studies, 13(1), 75-108.
  6. Faghihzadeh Gorji H., Eslami M., Jamshidi M. (2019), Geopolitical Security Environment of Israel and its Identical Policy, Geopolitics Quarterly, Volume: 14, No 4, 130-148.
  7. Fahey, Liam and William R. King (1977), Environmental Scanning for Corporate Planning, Business Horizons, Long Range Planning, no. 4 (August), pp. 61-71.- Finizadeh Bidgoli, J. (2017). Erāye alaghuī-ye erteqā-ye nefudh dar maḥīyat-e amniyatī dar ḥāl-e goz̤ār. [Presenting a Model for Enhancing Influence in a Transitional Security Environment]. National Security Quarterly, 6(23), 86.
  8. Farhadi, M. (2017). Taghyir-e ravīkar-e sīyāsat-e khārejī-ye Īrān dar Āsiyā-ye miyāneh va tāsīr ān bar maḥīyat-e amniyatī jomhūrī-ye eslāmī-e Īrān. [Changing the US Foreign Policy Approach in the Middle East and Its Impact on the Security Environment of the Islamic Republic of Iran]. National Security Quarterly, 6(23), 141.
  9. Finizadeh Bidgoli; Jafar (2016), Eraeh-ye Olguy-ye Erteqa-ye Nofuz Dar Mohit-e Amniati-e Dar Hal-e Gozar [Presenting a model for improving influence in the transitioning security environment], National Security Quarterly, 7(23), page 86
  10. Kodalle, T., Ormrod, D., Sample, C., & Scott, K. (2020). A General Theory of Influence in a DIME/PMESII/ASCOP/IRC2 Model. Journal of Information Warfare, 19(2), 12–26.
  11. Normohammadi, M., & Fasihi Dolatshahi, M.A. (2018). Karbastan nazariye majmue amniyati mantaghe’i dar tahlie masael va alaghuha-ye ravabet dar jonub Āsiyā. [Application of Regional Security Complex Theory in Analyzing Issues and Patterns of Relations in South Asia]. Political and International Approaches Journal, 10(2), 153-189.
  12. Seifi Kalestan, A., Gharayi Ashtiyani, M., & Poursadegh, N. (2022). Exploration of Weak Signals methodology and conceptual position in Futures Studies and Emerging Technologies literature؛ A Comparative Qualitative Study. Futures Studies Of The Islamic  Revolution, 3(3), 11-48.
  13. Shamsoddini, M., & Arab bafrani, M. R. (2023). The seeding of the new world order and the scenarios of the future geometry of the world. Futures Studies Of The Islamic Revolution, 4(1), 75-94.
  14. Tabatabaei, S.M., & Fathi, M.J. (2015). Tahavol-e mafhume amniyat dar NATO pas az jang-e sard bar asas-e maktab Kopenhagen. [The Evolution of the Concept of Security in NATO after the Cold War Based on the Copenhagen School]. Strategic Studies in Public Policy Making Quarterly, 5(17), 6-42.
  15. Butzer, Karl W. (1965), Physical Conditions in Eastern Europe, Western Asia and Egypt Before the Period of Agricultural and Urban Settlement, Cambridge University Press.
  16. Buzan, B., & Wæver, O. (2003). Regions and Powers: The Structure of International Security  (Cambridge Studies in International Relations). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. 56-220.
  17. David, Ruth A. (2005), Avoiding Surprise in an Era of Global Technology Advances, US National Academy of Sciences, 213.
  18. Koch, Bettina; Stivachtis, Yannis A., Regional Security in the Middle East , International Relaions Publishing (2019), ISBN 978-1-910814-51-2, 99-146.
  19. Miles, I., Saritas, O., & Sokolov, A. (2016). Foresight for Science, Technology and Innovation. (Science, Technology and Innovation Studies). Springer Nature.
  20. Pedram, A., & Ahmadian, M. (2016). Āmūzeh-hā va āzmudefahā-ye āyandeh-pezhūhi. [Lessons and Experiences of Future Studies]. Tehran: Strategic Future Horizon Publications, 151-191.
  21. Rennell, J. (2014). Treatise on the Comparative Geography of Western Asia: Accompanied with an Atlas of Maps (Cambridge Library Collection - Travel, Middle East and Asia Minor). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
  22. Seeberg, P. (2016), Analysing security subcomplexes in a changing Middle East — the role of non-Arab state actors and non-state actors. Palgrave Commun 2, 16087.
  23. Vaezi, M.(2007). Geopolitik-e bahran dar Āsiyaye markazi va qafqaz̤ [Geopolitics of Crisis in Central Asia and the Caucasus]. Tehran: Ministry of Foreign Affairs Printing and Publishing Center, 82-89.
  24. Van Der Meer, Petrus (1955), The Chronology of Ancient Western Asia and Egypt, Brill Archive Press.
  25. Young, Karen E. (2021), The Middle East and the Global Energy Transition , Middle East Institute, https://www.mei.edu/publications/middle-east-and-global-energy-transition
  26. Puri-Mirza, Amna (2022), Oil industry in the Middle East - statistics & facts, Statista, https://www.statista.com/topics/6508/middle-east-oil-industry
  27. Redden, Jim (2022), Regional Report: Middle East - Amid oil pleas, gas taking center stage, World Oil,
    https://www.worldoil.com/magazine/2022/october-2022/features/regional-report-middle-east-amid-oil-pleas-gas-taking-center-stage
Futures Studies Of The Islamic Revolution
Volume 4, Issue 3
Autumn Quarterly
Autumn 2023
Pages 11-33

  • Receive Date 26 July 2023
  • Revise Date 11 October 2023
  • Accept Date 21 October 2023
  • Publish Date 21 November 2023