Document Type : Original Article
Authors
1
Doctoral study of Iran's social issues, Kashan University
2
Faculty member of the Department of Social Sciences, University of Kashan, Iran
3
Faculty member of Kashan University
4
Director of the Cultural and Social Research Department of the Strategic Research Institute
Abstract
Identity is one of the most important challenges of the youth period, and different aspects of identity have an undeniable impact on all youth activities and affect it. Identity crisis is a situation in which, as a result of transformations and developments in the structural, cultural and communication fields, and at the same time not being recognized by the government and the world system, young people have problems and conflicts in recognizing their place in the surrounding environment, group and community. have became. The current research has investigated and written scenarios about the youth identity crisis in a 10-year horizon by using the causal layer analysis and using Mic Mac and Scenario Wizard software. In this way, by using the method of causal layer analysis and studying documents and in-depth interviews with experts, 227 key drivers of the identity crisis were identified. Then, these drivers were summarized based on the Pestel model and the layered approach, which reached 52 drivers. In the following, by using Micmac software, the influential and influential drivers are identified and finally, through Scenario Wizard, 4 scenarios are obtained for this purpose, two scenarios as pessimistic and two scenarios as optimistic.
Drivers of the pessimistic scenario: extreme disillusionment of young people from being ignored by the government, increasing gender inequality, expanding social networks, intensifying alienation of young people from the desired identity of the political system, only paying attention to pro-government forces.
Drivers of the optimistic scenario: recognition of all young people, reduction of gender inequality, expansion of social networks, increase in media literacy, reduction of alienation from the desired identity of the political system.
Keywords
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