"Identification, Measurement, and Analysis of Political Threats Affecting the Occurrence of Political Instability in Iran in the Horizon of 2033"

The study of political developments in the last few decades shows that social unrest and political instability have been increasing at the global level and have caused the formation of an environment with extreme uncertainty along with complexity and chaos in the political activism of societies. Iran's political-security environment has also been full of conflict and violence during the past century, with fluctuations between stability and instability, and in some cases, the occurrence of these political-security instabilities has surprised the policy-making systems. Is. The current research aims to identify, measure and analyze political threats in the ten-year horizon until 2033. The research approach is of the future research type with the exploratory approach of the mixed type. To collect information, two methods of environmental survey of texts and expert panel were used, and the statistical population is 10 people of scientific and academic opinion in the country, whose opinions were used in interviews by filling out the questionnaire or at the expert table. The findings of the research include the statistics of the threats to the political stability of the Islamic Republic of Iran in the ten-year horizon (2023-2033), the explanation of the threat trend, the explanation of the type and intensity of threats (depth and scope/internal and external) in the mentioned horizon, and the assessment of the probability of threats occurring in the determined horizon of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The results of the research show that in addition to common and diverse political threats, political instability in its various forms is one of the common threats that, if the current trend continues and the structures and policies are not reformed in the next decade, the system of the Islamic Republic of Iran will face a serious challenge.