Identification and analysis of drivers influencing the future of religious identity in Iranian society

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 PhD student in Futures Studies, Faculty of Humanities, Shahed University, Tehran, Iran

2 Assistant Professor, Future Studies Department, Khatam al-Anbia Air Defense University, Tehran, Iran

Abstract

The identity issue of Iranian society has gone through many ups and downs throughout history. Among the different elements of identity, religion has been the most important identity-giving element and factor of cohesion and unity in Iranian society. Since about two centuries ago, the confrontation with the different identity of Western modernity has turned religious identity into a challenging issue, and the rapid cultural and social changes of the contemporary world have raised the question of the future of religious identity more and more.The main question of this research is what are the future scenarios of the religious identity of the Iranian society? The research approach is exploratory using the scenario writing tool based on the Petershwartz model; After identifying the drivers based on the opinions of 5 experts, the situation of each of them was analyzed and then the future scenarios of religious identity were drawn. The tool of data analysis is the use of MikMak software.The findings of the research show that the four drivers of globalization, new communication media, governance and macroeconomic issues are the key drivers influencing the future of religious identity in Iran, and from the interaction of the resulting uncertainties It is also possible to draw four scenarios for the future of religious identity in Iranian society.

Keywords

Futures Studies Of The Islamic Revolution
Volume 6, Issue 1
April 2025
Pages 103-127

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History

  • Receive Date: 16 October 2024
  • Revise Date: 21 December 2024
  • Accept Date: 14 February 2025
  • Publish Date: 21 March 2025

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