Document Type : Original Article
Authors
1
PhD student in Business Strategy and Policy, School of Management, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran
2
Distinguished Professor, Department of Political Science, Faculty of Law and Political Science, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran
3
Professor, Department of Marketing and Market Development, Faculty of Management, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran
Abstract
In this research, utilizing a two-stage strategic foresight framework within the perfume industry, strategies and operational action plans for new product development were identified and formulated. Within this study, scientific, technological, and market trends were systematically monitored and identified through bibliometric analysis, patent analysis, network analysis, topic modeling, thematic analysis, and sentiment analysis. Subsequently, key drivers were identified and prioritized using cross-impact analysis and impact/uncertainty analysis. Based on the two key drivers, "(1) Smart Technology Integration" and "(2) Personalization," four future scenarios were developed: (1) Established Optimization, (2) Smart Mass Production, (3) Experiential and Artisanal Niches, and (4) Digital-Driven Hyper-Personalization. The key research findings indicated a convergence of market demand and scientific/technological advancements towards (1) superior technical performance and (2) complex and personalized olfactory experiences. Finally, leveraging the Three Horizons framework and scenario analysis, this study formulated a specific set of new product development strategies (robust and adaptive) and corresponding operational action plans across short-, medium-, and long-term time horizons. These formulated strategies and actions focus on tangible activities such as (1) employing advanced controlled-release technologies to achieve demonstrable performance superiority, (2) exploring innovative scent notes, (3) leveraging artificial intelligence (AI), and (4) providing tangible options for creating distinct and personalized olfactory experiences, thereby ensuring readiness to compete and succeed in the diverse future landscapes of the perfume industry.
Keywords
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