Strategic Foresight of the Economy with Emphasis on the Second Step Statement of the Islamic Revolution from the Viewpoints of the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution, Ayatollah Khamenei

Ashraf Ganjoei, Reza; Esfandiari, Marziyeh; Barani, Abolhasan

Strategic Foresight of the Economy with Emphasis on the Second Step Statement of the Islamic Revolution from the Viewpoints of the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution, Ayatollah Khamenei

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

Reza Ashraf Ganjoei ¹

Marziyeh Esfandiari ²

Abolhasan Barani ³

¹ Assistant Professor, Economics Department, Faculty of Economics and Management, University of Sistan and Baluchestan, Zahedan, Iran. Email: reza_ash@eco.usb.ac.ir.

² Associate Professor, Economics Department, Faculty of Economics and Management, University of Sistan and Baluchestan, Zahedan, Iran. Email: m.esfandiari@eco.usb.ac.ir.

³ Assistant Professor, Department of Islamic Teachings, Faculty of Theology, University of Sistan and Baluchestan, Zahedan, Iran. Email: barani@theo.usb.ac.ir.

Abstract

In recent years, the Supreme Leader of the Revolution has presented a strategic economic foresight through the concept of resistance economy. He stated that weak economic performance challenges the country from both external and internal fronts. The external challenge is sanctions, which will diminish if internal issues are addressed. Considering this, this study examines the impact of these challenges on weakening or strengthening the economy using a fuzzy regression model. The statistical population of the research is based on the second step statement of the Revolution from 1979 to 2020. The results indicate that imports, unemployment, dependence on oil revenues, sanctions, income inequality, the expansion of government size in the economy, inflation, and reduced utilization of the active population are among the factors that significantly weaken the economy in that order. Furthermore, the mentioned challenges have had a considerable impact on economic growth since 2011. If appropriate policies are implemented correctly in line with the second step statement of the Islamic Revolution, as emphasized by Ayatollah Khamenei, the trajectory of economic growth will significantly improve compared to the current trend, leading to a stronger economy. The overall conclusion of this study is that internalizing the economy provides a strategic foresight that protects not only the current generation but also future generations from the harms of economic vulnerabilities.

Keywords

Strategic Foresight of the Economy

Ayatollah Khamenei

Second Step Statement of the Islamic Revolution

Strong Economy

Aghaei Majid, Rezagholizadeh Mahdieh, Mohammad Rezaei Majid (2019), Studying the impact of economic and trade sanctions on trade relations between Iran and major trading partner countries.‎ [In Persian]

Ahmadi, Shams-Esfandabadi. (2019). Strategic model of commercial diplomacy of the Islamic Republic of Iran with regard to economic war (economic sanctions), general policies of the resistance economy and experiences of selected countries. Defense Economics, 17(5), 105-132. [In Persian]

ara. (1401). Analysis of the impact of the economic complexity index on the components of economic defense in the Islamic Republic of Iran. Quarterly Journal of Defense Economics and Sustainable Development, 7(25), 39-66. [In Persian]

Bagheri, Mousavi, Seyed Mostafa. (2019). Conceptualization of the Resistance Economy and Explaining Its Role and Position in the Post-Sanctions Era. Quarterly Journal of Financial and Economic Policies, 6(24), 111-147[In Persian].

Bahrami, Ghanizadeh, Saman, (2019). Explaining the position and role of the economic security police in achieving the goals of the Second Step Declaration of the Islamic Revolution of Iran. Quarterly Scientific Journal of Detective, 13(48), 43-58. [In Persian]

Dolaatkhah, Zahrani (2008). Comparing sanctions imposed against Iran and North Korea in the Security Council. Strategy, 18(2).‎ [In Persian]

Gholizadeh Zavashti, Mollahasani, Naimeh, Esmaeil Pour, Arab Bafarani. (2023). Designing a strategic foresight model to implement the second step statement of the Islamic Revolution. Islamic Revolution Future Studies, 3(4), 11-44.‎ [In Persian]

H.Tanaka, S. Uejima, K. Asai, (1982); Linear regression analysis with fuzzy Institution. Statist, Assoc, Vol. 9, PP. 209-219

Voghofi, Omid, Iftari, Behnam. (1400). Presenting a conceptual framework for future thinking from the perspective of the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution, Ayatollah Khamenei (may God bless him and grant him peace). Islamic Revolution Future Studies, 2(1), 79-108. [In Persian]

Iftari, Behnam, Ghofufi, Omid. (1400). Presenting a Conceptual Framework for Future Thinking from the Perspective of the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution, Ayatollah Khamenei (May God Rest His Soul). Future Studies of the Islamic Revolution, 2(1), 79-108[In Persian].

Karami, Mahdikhani Sarvojahani. (1402). Expectations from the Civilizational Seminary with a Look at the Statements of the Supreme Leader; Critical review of the new program announced by the Center for the Management of Seminaries in 1401. Future Studies of the Islamic Revolution, 4(1), 11-37.‎ [In Persian]

Mahdiloo Ali, Abolhasani Asghar, Rezaei Mohsen (2019), Ranking of types of economic sanctions and estimating the risk index of sanctions using the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process.‎ Fuzzy." 47-72[In Persian].

Masoud, Kianoo Hekmat, Parto, Farazmand, Hassan (2012), "Studying the impact of economic sanctions on agricultural production using the productivity growth rate Total Factors of Production", First Iranian Agricultural Economics Student Conference, Mashhad. [In Persian]

Milani, Jamil. (2015). Resistance Economy and National Self-Confidence, Opportunities and Challenges for Its Realization. Economic Journal-Monthly Review of Economic Issues and Policies, 15(7), 5-22[In Persian].

Nasrabadi, Davoud, Moussavian. (1402). Strategic Model of Passive Economic Defense in the Direction of Realizing a Resistance Economy. Quarterly Journal of Defense Economics and Sustainable Development, 8(28), 53-82.‎ [In Persian]

Samiei Nasab. (2014), Economic diplomacy, strategy for dealing with economic sanctions in the system of resistance economy. Quarterly Journal of Security Horizons, 7(25).

Samsami, Mozaffari Khalaf Badam, Qasem. (1402). Study of factors affecting the concentration of exports in terms of goods and countries with an emphasis on resistance economy policies. Quarterly Journal of Defense Economics and Sustainable Development, 8(27), 55-76. [In Persian]

Shahsavari, Sajjad, (2019) Resistance Economy, the ideology of revolutionary resistance against economic threats (from theory to practice based on the recommendations of the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution in the statement of the second step of the revolution), the first national conference on the soft power of the Islamic Revolution focusing on four decades of resistance and the cultural requirements of the second step of the Islamic Revolution. [In Persian]

Shirveyehpour, Shahriar, Nikoeyeh, Aziz Mohammadloo, Mortazavi. (1402). Analysis and Explanation of the Drivers Affecting the Future of the Iranian Economy in the Direction of Realizing the Second Step Declaration of the Revolution. Interdisciplinary Studies of Strategic Knowledge, 13(52), 197-171[In Persian].