The seeding of the new world order and the scenarios of the future geometry of the world

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 Researcher in Faculty of Hazrat-e Vali-e-asr (Future Studies)Management and Planning, Imam Hossein University, Tehran, Iran

2 Assistant Professor, Department of Future Studies, Hazrat Wali Asr Faculty and Research Institute, Imam Hossein University (AS), Tehran, Iran

Abstract

Changes, on a global scale, will affect the destinies of all countries and perhaps the destinies of all people. One of the areas whose change is important and effective for all societies is the world order. One of the basic questions of international relations thinkers today is whether the world order is moving towards unity or multiplicity, i.e. whether it is moving towards the consolidation of centers in different areas or towards the distribution and multiplication of power centers? And the second question is, in which areas (geoculture, geopolitics and geoeconomy), is it moving towards unity and in which areas is it moving towards plurality? In this research, using the scenario design method, these questions have been addressed and the future scenarios of the world order are studied based on three geostrategic discontinuities, i.e. geopolitics, geoculture and geoeconomy, and the global movement in each of them towards unity or plurality. This research does not seek answers to the above questions, but seeks to clarify the space of the problem. For this reason, finally, 8 different scenarios facing the international order were identified and introduced. Considering that the current situation is the "moment of multiplicity", the dominant form of future scenarios will be focused on multiplicity and plurality in power centers in each of the mentioned dimensions. Finally, according to the formulation of the scenarios, it was proposed to redesign the grand strategy of the Islamic revolution in accordance with the current conditions, and to leave the geostrategic introversion under the idea of "transpire of the revolution" based on the "Appearance of The effects of the Revolution in region and extra-region".

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