آینده‌پژوهی ریسک اجتماعی در ایران با تکیه بر رویکرد تحلیل لایه‌ای علّی

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استاد گروه علوم اجتماعی، دانشکده علوم انسانی، دانشگاه کاشان، کاشان، ایران.

2 دانشجوی دکتری جامعه‌شناسی بررسی مسائل اجتماعی ایران، دانشکده علوم انسانی، دانشگاه کاشان، کاشان، ایران.

3 استادیار گروه مدیریت، دانشکده علوم انسانی، دانشگاه کاشان، کاشان، ایران.

چکیده

ریسک‌های اجتماعی همواره و در تمامی ادوار تاریخ در زندگی انسان نقشی اساسی داشته‌اند، اما در دوران معاصر نگرش افراد جامعه به ریسک‌های اجتماعی دچار تحول عظیمی شده است و نقش این ریسک‌ها در حوزه‌های زیسته اعضای جامعه غیرقابل انکار است، بر همین اساس ایجاد نگرشی صحیح درباره آینده ریسک‌های اجتماعی ضروری به نظر می‌رسد. هدف پژوهش حاضر آینده‌پژوهی ریسک اجتماعی با اتخاذ نگاهی به افق 20 ساله جامعه ایران است، جامعه آماری این پژوهش متشکل از 12 نفر از خبرگان فرهنگی و اساتید دانشگاهی بوده است، برای گردآوری یافته‌ها از ابزار مصاحبه باز استفاده شده است. بعد از انجام مصاحبه با خبرگان، از طریق تحلیل تماتیک، مقوله‌های اصلی و فرعی از مصاحبه‌ها استخراج شده و با استفاده از روش تحلیل لایه‌ای علی، ابعاد و مؤلفه‌های یافته‌ها در چهار سطح لیتانی، علل اجتماعی، گفتمان و جهان‌بینی و اسطوره و استعاره شناسایی شدند. نتایج حاصل از این پژوش نشان داد که در افقی 20 ساله ریسک‌های اجتماعی در حوزه‌های مختلف تشدید خواهد شد و استعاره و اسطوره‌هایی چون «پی همه چیز را به تن مالیدن»، «هنر کردن»، «قمارباز» و «دل به دریا زدن» به عنوان مؤلفه‌های اساسی ریسک اجتماعی شناخته شدند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Future research of social risk in Iran based on the causal layer analysis approach

نویسندگان [English]

  • Mohsen Niazi 1
  • Farshad Goudarzi 2
  • Esmaeil Mazroui 3
1 Professor, Department of Social Sciences, Faculty of Humanities, Kashan University, Kashan
2 Sociology PhD student studying Iran's social issues, Faculty of Humanities, Kashan University, Kashan, Iran
3 Assistant Professor, Department of Management, Faculty of Humanities, Kashan University
چکیده [English]

Social risks have always and in all periods of history played a fundamental role in human life, but in the contemporary era, the attitude of society's people towards social risks has undergone a huge transformation, and the role of these risks in the living areas of society members is undeniable, on this basis, creating a correct attitude about The future of social risks seems essential. The purpose of the current research is to study the future of social risk by taking a look at the 20-year horizon of Iranian society, the statistical population of this research consisted of 12 cultural experts and university professors, open interview tool was used to collect the findings. After conducting interviews with experts, through thematic analysis, main and sub-categories were extracted from the interviews and using the layered causal analysis method, the dimensions and components of the findings were identified in four levels of litany, social causes, discourse and worldview, and myth and metaphor. . The results of this research showed that in a 20-year horizon, social risks will intensify in various fields, and metaphors and myths such as "rubbing everything on the body", "making art", "gambler" and "going into the sea" They were recognized as the basic components of social risk.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • causal layer analysis
  • Future research
  • ontological insecurity
  • social risk

Smiley face

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آینده پژوهی انقلاب اسلامی
دوره 4، شماره 1
فصلنامه بهار
خرداد 1402
صفحه 39-73

فایل ها

سابقه مقاله

  • تاریخ دریافت: 07 اردیبهشت 1402
  • تاریخ بازنگری: 28 اردیبهشت 1402
  • تاریخ پذیرش: 15 خرداد 1402
  • تاریخ انتشار: 30 خرداد 1402

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