ارائه چارچوب دیدبانی تحولات راهبردی محیط امنیتی جمهوری اسلامی ایران

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشگاه بین‌المللی امام خمینی

2 دانشکده علوم اجتماعی دانشگاه بین‌المللی امام خمینی، قزوین

3 رئیس کمیسیون آینده پژوهی و استاد دانشگاه شاهد

4 دانشکده علوم اجتماعی، دانشگاه بین‌المللی امام خمینی، قزوین

چکیده

تحولات معاصر در منطقه غرب آسیا نشان دهنده افزایش استعداد بروز تحولات راهبردی در آینده منطقه هستند که لاجرم کنشگران و واحدهای سیاسی موجود در این نظام منطقه‌ای را تحت تأثیر قرار میدهند. بر این أساس و با توجه به اصل پیشگیری از غافلگیری راهبردی و همچنین آگاهی زودهنگام از فرصت‌ها و تهدیدهای پیش رو در محیط امنیتی جمهوری اسلامی ایران، دیدبانی این تحولات اهمیت می‌یابد.پژوهش حاضر برای یافتن چارچوبی جامع برای دیدبانی تحولات راهبردی در این منطقه، دو پرسش اساسی چگونگی نگریستن و تحلیل دینامیک تحولات؛ و همچنین مولفه‌ها و شاخص‌های مهم برای پایش تحولات را واکاوی می‌کند. در پاسخ به پرسش نخست، تعداد 5 زیرسیستم امنیتی مبتنی بر وابستگی متقابل امنیتی برگرفته از نظریه مجموعه امنیتی بوزان شناسایی شدند. در پاسخ به پرسش دوم، تعداد 51 مولفه برای دیدبانی محیط امنیتی جمهوری اسلامی در منطقه غرب آسیا احصا شدند. این پژوهش، با رویکردی کیفی از اسناد و مطالعات کتابخانه‌ای برای گردآوری داده‌ها استفاده کرده و روش توصیفی تحلیلی را برای نیل به نتایج پژوهش به کار گرفته است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Providing a monitoring framework for strategic transformations in the security environment of the Islamic Republic of Iran

نویسندگان [English]

  • AhmadReza Mirzaei 1
  • Einollah Keshavarz Tork 2
  • Hakem Ghasemi 2
  • MohammadRahim Eivazi 3
  • Rohullah Bayat 4
1 Imam khomeini International University
2 Department of Social Sciences, Imam Khomeini International University, Qazvin
3 Head of Foresight Commission and Professor oat Shahed University
4 Department of Social Sciences, Imam Khomeini International University, Qazvin
چکیده [English]

The contemporary transformations in the West Asian region indicate the increasing potential of strategic transformations in the future of the region, which inevitably affect the actors and political units in this regional system. On this basis and with regard to the principle of preventing strategic surprises as well as early awareness of the opportunities and threats ahead in the security environment of the Islamic Republic of Iran, it is important to monitor these transformaations. In order to find a comprehensive framework for monitoring strategic transformations in this region, the present research expresses two basic question of how to view and analyze the dynamics of transformations; and also the important components and indicators for monitoring developments. In response to the first question, five security subsystems based on security interdependence derived from Bozan's security set theory were identified. In response to the second question, 51 components to monitor the security environment of the Islamic Republic in the West Asia region were obtained. This research, with a qualitative approach, has used documents and library studies to collect data and has used a descriptive analytical method to achieve the results of the research.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Strategic transformations
  • Islamic Republic of Iran
  • Monitoring
  • Security environment

Smiley face

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آینده پژوهی انقلاب اسلامی
دوره 4، شماره 3
فصلنامه پاییز
آبان 1402
صفحه 11-33

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سابقه مقاله

  • تاریخ دریافت: 04 مرداد 1402
  • تاریخ بازنگری: 19 مهر 1402
  • تاریخ پذیرش: 29 مهر 1402
  • تاریخ انتشار: 30 آبان 1402

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