بررسی آینده ثبات سیاسی در رژیم صهیونیستی با رویکرد سناریونویسی

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری، گروه مطالعات سیاسی انقلاب اسلامی، دانشکده علوم انسانی، دانشگاه شاهد،تهران، ایران

2 استادیار گروه مطالعات سیاسی انقلاب اسلامی ، دانشکده علوم انسانی، دانشگاه شاهد، تهران، ایران.

چکیده

در یک دهه اخیر، رژیم صهیونیستی از نظر سیاسی با تنش های زیادی از جمله درگیری با نیروهای فلسطینی، نزاع های داخلی و اختلافات سیاسی بین احزاب مختلف مواجه بوده است. با توجه به پیچیدگی های منطقه، احتمالاً اوضاع سیاسی در رژیم صهیونیستی پس از عملیات طوفان الاقصی پیچیده تر خواهد شد، اما ممکن است تغییرات مثبتی نیز در این میان برای حکومت اسرائیل رخ دهد. در این مقاله هدف آن است که با مطالعه رفتارهای احزاب سیاسی اسرائیل در طول سالیان گذشته، تحولات نظام سیاسی آن در 10 سال آتی به کمک سناریونویسی به روش جیمز دیتور مورد آینده پژوهی قرار گیرد. در این تحقیق آینده ثبات سیاسی طبق نظریه جیمز دیتور در 4 سناریو دسته بندی شده و پس از بیان هر سناریو پیشران‌ها و موانع آن بیان می‌شود. 3 مؤلفه تأثیرگذار بر پیشران ها و موانع وقوع هر سناریو تأثیرگذار است: مؤلفه های سیاسی داخلی، متغیرهای ساختاری نظام سیاسی و معادلات بین المللی. هر کدام از این مؤلفه ها چند زیر مؤلفه دارند که به ما کمک می‌کند پیشران ها و موانع وقوع یک سناریو را تبیین کنیم. در این پژوهش اتفاقات ده سال آینده رژیم صهیونیستی در قالب چهار سناریو مورد صورت بندی قرار گرفته است. بر این مبنا قدرت گیری جریان چپ و میانه رو، قدرت گیری جریان راست، تغییر پیاپی دولت ها و تغییر ساختار نظام سیاسی به عنوان سناریوهای احتمالی مورد بررسی قرار گرفت. بر اساس یافته های این پژوهش تغییر پیاپی دولت ها کماکان محتمل ترین سناریو برای آینده رژیم صهیونیستی است.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Predicting the future of political stability in the Zionist regime with a scenario writing method.

نویسندگان [English]

  • Ali Akbar Fahimi 1
  • Shohreh Pirani 2
1 PhD student, Islamic Revolution Political Studies Department, Faculty of Humanities, Shahid University, Tehran, Iran
2 Assistant Professor, Department of Political Studies of the Islamic Revolution, Faculty of Humanities, Shahid University, Tehran, Iran.
چکیده [English]

In the last decade, Israel has faced many political tensions, including conflict with Palestinian forces, internal strife, and political differences between different parties. Considering the complexities of the region, the political situation in the Zionist regime will probably become more complicated after the Al-Aqsa flood operation, but there may be positive changes for the Israeli government in the meantime. The aim of this article is to study the behavior of Israel's political parties over the past years, the evolution of its political system in the next 10 years with the help of scenario writing in the James Detour method. In this research, the future of political stability is categorized into 4 scenarios, and after each scenario, its drivers and obstacles are stated. 3 components influencing the scenarios should be considered: domestic political components, structural variables of the political system and international equations. Each of these components has several sub-components that help us explain the drivers and obstacles to the occurrence of a scenario. In this research, the events of the next ten years of the Israel have been formulated in the form of four scenarios. On this basis, the strengthening of the left and moderate movement, the strengthening of the right movement, successive changes of governments and changes in the structure of the political system were investigated as possible scenarios. According to the findings of this research, the successive change of governments is still the most likely scenario for the future of the Israel.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Future research
  • scenario writing
  • Zionist regime
  • Israeli government
  • Al-Aqsa flood

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