آینده پژوهی انقلاب اسلامی

آینده پژوهی انقلاب اسلامی

شناسایی، سنجش و تحلیل تهدیدات سیاسی تأثیرگذار بر وقوع بی‌ثباتی سیاسی در ایران در افق 1412

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسنده
دانشگاه پدافند هوایی خاتم الانبیاء(ص) ارتش
چکیده
مطالعه تحولات سیاسی در چند دهه اخیر بیانگر آن است که ناآرامی‌های اجتماعی و بی‌ثباتی سیاسی در سطح جهانی روند افزایشی داشته و سبب شکل-گیری محیطی با عدم قطعیت بسیار شدید همراه با پیچیدگی و آشوب در کنشگری‌های سیاسی جوامع شده است. محیط سیاسی-امنیتی ایران نیز در طی یک سده گذشته محیطی پر از کشمکش و خشونت همراه با نوسان در بین ثبات و بی‌ثباتی بوده و در مواردی وقوع این بی‌ثباتی‌های سیاسی- امنیتی سبب غافلگیری نظام‌های سیاست‌گزاری شده است. پژوهش حاضر در پی شناسایی، سنجش و تحلیل تهدیدات سیاسی در افق ده‌ساله تا 1412برآمده است. رویکرد پژوهش از نوع آینده‌پژوهی با رویکرد اکتشافی از نوع آمیخته است. برای جمع‌آوری اطلاعات از دو روش پیمایش محیطی متون و پنل خبرگانی استفاده‌شده و جامعه آماری آن 10 تن از افراد صاحب‌نظر علمی و دانشگاهی کشوراست که با آن‌ها مصاحبه و در تکمیل پرسش‌نامه یا در میز خبرگی از نظرات آن‌ها استفاده‌شده است. یافته‌های پژوهش دربرگیرنده احصاء تهدیدات ثبات سیاسی جمهوری اسلامی ایران در افق ده‌ساله (1412-1402)، تبیین روند تهدیدات، تبیین نوع و شدت تهدیدات (عمق و دامنه/ داخلی و خارجی) در افق یادشده، سنجش احتمال وقوع تهدیدات در افق تعیین‌شده پیش‌روی جمهوری اسلامی ایران است. نتایج پژوهش بیانگر آن است که علاوه بر تهدیدات رایج و متنوع سیاسی، بی‌ثباتی سیاسی در اشکال مختلف آن،‌یکی از تهدیدات رایجی است که در صورت ادامه روند فعلی و عدم‌اصلاح ساختارها و سیاستگزاری‌ها در یک دهه آینده، نظام جمهوری اسلامی ایران را با چالش جدی مواجه خواهد کرد.
کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله English

"Identification, Measurement, and Analysis of Political Threats Affecting the Occurrence of Political Instability in Iran in the Horizon of 2033"

نویسنده English

Mohsen biuck
Air Defense University of Khatam al-Anbiya
چکیده English

The study of political developments in the last few decades shows that social unrest and political instability have been increasing at the global level and have caused the formation of an environment with extreme uncertainty along with complexity and chaos in the political activism of societies. Iran's political-security environment has also been full of conflict and violence during the past century, with fluctuations between stability and instability, and in some cases, the occurrence of these political-security instabilities has surprised the policy-making systems. Is. The current research aims to identify, measure and analyze political threats in the ten-year horizon until 2033. The research approach is of the future research type with the exploratory approach of the mixed type. To collect information, two methods of environmental survey of texts and expert panel were used, and the statistical population is 10 people of scientific and academic opinion in the country, whose opinions were used in interviews by filling out the questionnaire or at the expert table. The findings of the research include the statistics of the threats to the political stability of the Islamic Republic of Iran in the ten-year horizon (2023-2033), the explanation of the threat trend, the explanation of the type and intensity of threats (depth and scope/internal and external) in the mentioned horizon, and the assessment of the probability of threats occurring in the determined horizon of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The results of the research show that in addition to common and diverse political threats, political instability in its various forms is one of the common threats that, if the current trend continues and the structures and policies are not reformed in the next decade, the system of the Islamic Republic of Iran will face a serious challenge.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

political threats
Islamic Republic of Iran
political instability
future studies
Abdullah Khani, Ali (2006) International Security (No. 3) Opportunities, Threats and Challenges Facing the National Security of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Tehran, Publications of Abrar Contemporary International Studies and Research Institute, Tehran. (In Persian)
Azimi Dolatabadi, Amir (2007) Conflicts of political elites and political stability in the Islamic Republic of Iran. Tehran, Publications Center of Islamic Revolution Documents. (In Persian)
Bashirieh, Hossein (2002) An introduction to the political sociology of Iran in the period of the Islamic Republic. Tehran, a contemporary look. (In Persian)
Fawzi Tuiserkani, Yahya (2005), social political developments after the Islamic revolution in Iran, Tehran, Arouj publishing house. (In Persian)
Ger, Ted Robert (2002) Why do people riot? Translated by Ali Morshidizad, Tehran, Institute of Strategic Studies. (In Persian)
Ghanbari, M & Soleimani, Gh & Tabatabaei. S.M . (2023). A comparative study of future studies on the political dimension of good governance in the ummah-imamate system and the liberal democracy system. Journal future studies of the Islamic revolution 3(4), 161–195.
Ghasemi Turki, Mohammad Ali (2007) "New Social Movements: A Case Study of Azerbaijan", Strategic Studies Quarterly, 10, 35: 61-87. In: https://www.noormags.ir/view/fa/articlepage/193362 (August 10, 1402) (In Persian)
Jasbi, Abdullah (2000) Inclusive Organization: A Review of a Decade of Activity of the Islamic Republic of Iran Party (Volume 1), Tehran, Scientific Publishing Center of Islamic Azad University. (In Persian)
Katouzian, Mohammad Ali (2004), Conflict between the state and the nation: the theory of history and politics in Iran, Ali Tayeb, Tehran, publishing center. (In Persian)
Khajeh Sarvi, Gholamreza (2016) "A framework for analyzing political competition and political stability with a view to the experience of the Islamic Republic of Iran" Political Science Quarterly, 2, 3: 85-116 in: https://sid.ir/paper/134606 /fa (August 12, 1402) (In Persian)
Mohammadi Lord, Abdul Mahmoud (2013), Future research of political stability, Tehran, Strategic Studies Research Institute. (In Persian)
Moradian, Mohsen (2006) Introduction to dimensions and manifestations of threats, Tehran: Rasha Publications. (In Persian)
National Security Yearbook of the Islamic Republic of Iran (2016), Tehran, Strategic Studies Research Institute (In Persian).
National Security Yearbook of the Islamic Republic of Iran (2018), Tehran, Institute of Strategic Studies (In Persian).
Niazi, M & Goudarzi, F & Mazroui, E. (2023). Futures studies of social risk in Iran based on the causal Stratified analysisapproach. Journal future studies of the Islamic revolution, 1(4), 39–73.
Panahi, Mohammad Adel (2013) "Income on political stability: towards the knowledge of types and indicators" Strategy Quarterly, 12, 31 at: https://civilica.com/doc/1350146 (August 15, 2023) (In Persian)
Qanei Rad, Mohammad Amin (2014), Social Development Approach to Poverty Alleviation Programs in Iran, Social Welfare Quarterly, 5, 18: 223-261. In: https://www.sid.ir/paper/56424/fa. (August 19, 1402) (In Persian)
Rai, Massoud, Faramarz Atrian (2013) "The Rule of Law and Government Provisions in the Constitution of the Islamic Republic of Iran", Islamic Government Quarterly, 17,1: 123-146 in: https://elmnet.ir/article/1324777-11389 August 10, 1402 (In Persian)
Ramezani, Malihe; Nikunahad, Ayub; Eivazi, Mohammad Rahim (2021) "Identification and analysis of drivers affecting the future of political participation in Iran and the upcoming scenarios", Contemporary Political Studies, 12, 2: 77-112 (DOI (10.30465/CPS.2021.34588.2699) (In Persian)
Sardar Nia, Khalil; Alborzi, Hengameh (2022) "Analysis of the recent labor-social protests in Iran from the perspective of street politics theory", Strategic Policy Research Quarterly, 11, 40: 103-145 DOI: 10.22054/QPSS.2021.64113.2938 (In Persian)
Saunders, David (2001), Patterns of Political Instability, Tehran, Strategic Studies Research Institute. (In Persian)
voros,Joseph. (2008)”.Integral Futures: An approach to futures inquiry Futures inquiy” 40,2: 190-201.available at: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0016328707001735.(accessed 11            August 2023)
Yearbook of National Security of the Islamic Republic of Iran (2017), Tehran, Institute of Strategic Studies (In Persian).
Zibakalam, Sadegh (1998), Tradition and Modernity (finding the root causes of the failure of reforms and political modernization in Qajar-era Iran), Tehran, Roozbeh Publications. (In Persian)
"The trend of changes in the Gini coefficient in the last 20 years" (May 2, 2021) Iran Statistics Center: https://www.amar.org.ir/Portals/0/News/1400/zaribini99.pdf (March 24, 2023) (In Persian)
Bell, wendel (2003) Foundations of Futures Studies: Volume (1) History, Purposes, and Knowledge (Human Science for a New Era Series), 1st Edition, London: Routledge.
Bozan, Bari (1999) People, governments, fear. Tehran: Translation and Publications of Strategic Studies Research School. (In Persian)
the efficiency of government in Iran from 2011 to 2021”(aprill 2021) .available at: https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/iran/overview.(accessed 14August 2023)
دوره 5، شماره 4
فصلنامه زمستان
زمستان 1403
صفحه 169-201

  • تاریخ دریافت 12 مرداد 1403
  • تاریخ بازنگری 08 مهر 1403
  • تاریخ پذیرش 14 آذر 1403
  • تاریخ انتشار 01 دی 1403