نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 استاد، گروه آینده پژوهی، دانشگاه بین المللی امام خمینی(ره) ،قزوین، ایران
2 دانشجوی دکترای آینده پژوهی، دانشگاه بین المللی امام خمینی (ره)، قزوین، ایران
چکیده
کلیدواژهها
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسندگان [English]
Fuzzy cognitive maps (FCMs) are a widely used method in content analysis, which can be used to extract cause and effect relationships between different indicators, and since cause and effect relationships and determination of indicators are of great importance in futures studies, the present study examines their functional role. It deals with such researches. Therefore, the type of research is applied-developmental with a qualitative approach. The statistical population of the research is 243 titles of related articles during the past decade from 2014 to 2024 in the study section and in the field section for the implementation of two-stage fuzzy Delphi, 12 university professors. In the study section with a meta-composite approach, 67 article titles related to the topic, out of 243 related titles, statistics that resulted in the extraction of 24 themes, which are related themes in three topics: the functional role of fuzzy cognitive maps in determining uncertainty (11 themes), determining the lack of Determination (7 themes) and risk analysis (6 themes) were categorized. In the field section, by performing two fuzzy Delphi steps and obtaining the opinion of experts, the experts reached an agreement in determining the uncertainty of nine themes, in determining the uncertainty of five themes, and in risk analysis of four themes. The findings of the research showed the place of fuzzy cognitive maps in determining uncertainty in the important and sensitive discussion of decision-making and related processes, in determining uncertainty based on the explanation of causal relationships between phenomena and influencing factors, and in risk analysis based on the implementation of plans with In their consequences, the results obtained from the consequences and related analyzes are expressed.
کلیدواژهها [English]
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