آینده پژوهی انقلاب اسلامی

آینده پژوهی انقلاب اسلامی

آینده نگاری راهبردی صنعت عطر با تمرکز بر توسعه محصول جدید و رصد روندهای علم، فناوری و بازار

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان
1 دانشجوی دکتری استراتژی و سیاست‌گذاری کسب‌وکار، دانشکدگان مدیریت، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران
2 استاد ممتاز گروه علوم سیاسی، دانشکده حقوق و علوم سیاسی، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران
3 استاد گروه بازاریابی و توسعه بازار، دانشکدگان مدیریت، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران
چکیده
در این پژوهش، با به‌کارگیری یک چارچوب دومرحله‌ای آینده‌نگاری راهبردی در صنعت عطر، به شناسایی و تدوین راهبردها و برنامه‌های اقدام عملیاتی برای توسعه محصول جدید پرداخته شد. در این پژوهش، روندهای علمی، فناورانه و بازار به‌طور نظام‌مند از طریق تحلیل‌های کتاب‌سنجی، تحلیل پتنت، تحلیل شبکه، مدلسازی موضوعی، تحلیل مضمون و تحلیل احساسات، مورد رصد و شناسایی قرار گرفتند. سپس، پیشران‌های کلیدی شناسایی و با استفاده از تحلیل تأثیر متقابل و تحلیل اثر/عدم قطعیت اولویت‌بندی شدند و بر اساس دو پیشران کلیدی «(1)ادغام فناوری هوشمند» و «(2)شخصی‌سازی»، چهار سناریوی آینده ((1)بهینه‌سازی تثبیت‌شده، (2)تولید انبوه هوشمند، (3)جایگاه‌های تجربی و هنری و (4)فرا-شخصی‌سازی دیجیتال‌محور) توسعه یافتند. یافته‌های کلیدی پژوهش، همگرایی تقاضای بازار و پیشرفت‌های علمی/فناورانه به سمت (1)عملکرد فنی برتر و (2)تجربیات بویایی پیچیده و شخصی‌سازی‌شده را نشان دادند. نهایتاً، در این پژوهش و با بهره‌گیری از چارچوب سه افق و تحلیل سناریوها، مجموعه‌ای مشخص از راهبردهای توسعه محصول جدید (استوار و انطباقی) و برنامه‌های اقدام عملیاتی متناظر در افق‌های زمانی کوتاه، میان و بلندمدت تدوین گردید. این راهبردها و اقدامات فرموله‌شده، بر فعالیت‌های ملموسی نظیر (1)به‌کارگیری فناوری‌های پیشرفته رهایش کنترل‌شده برای دستیابی به برتری عملکردی قابل اثبات، (2)کاوش در نت‌های نوآورانه، (3)بهره‌گیری از هوش مصنوعی و (4)ارائه گزینه‌های ملموس برای خلق تجربیات بویایی متمایز و شخصی تمرکز دارند و بدین ترتیب، آمادگی لازم برای رقابت و موفقیت در چشم‌اندازهای متنوع آینده صنعت عطر را فراهم می‌آورند.
کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله English

Strategic Foresight in the Perfume Industry with a Focus on New Product Development through Monitoring Trends in Science, Technology, and Market

نویسندگان English

amir salar vanaki 1
Abbas mossalanejad 2
Tahmours Hasangholi Pouryasouri 3
1 PhD student in Business Strategy and Policy, School of Management, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran
2 Distinguished Professor, Department of Political Science, Faculty of Law and Political Science, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran
3 Professor, Department of Marketing and Market Development, Faculty of Management, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran
چکیده English

In this research, utilizing a two-stage strategic foresight framework within the perfume industry, strategies and operational action plans for new product development were identified and formulated. Within this study, scientific, technological, and market trends were systematically monitored and identified through bibliometric analysis, patent analysis, network analysis, topic modeling, thematic analysis, and sentiment analysis. Subsequently, key drivers were identified and prioritized using cross-impact analysis and impact/uncertainty analysis. Based on the two key drivers, "(1) Smart Technology Integration" and "(2) Personalization," four future scenarios were developed: (1) Established Optimization, (2) Smart Mass Production, (3) Experiential and Artisanal Niches, and (4) Digital-Driven Hyper-Personalization. The key research findings indicated a convergence of market demand and scientific/technological advancements towards (1) superior technical performance and (2) complex and personalized olfactory experiences. Finally, leveraging the Three Horizons framework and scenario analysis, this study formulated a specific set of new product development strategies (robust and adaptive) and corresponding operational action plans across short-, medium-, and long-term time horizons. These formulated strategies and actions focus on tangible activities such as (1) employing advanced controlled-release technologies to achieve demonstrable performance superiority, (2) exploring innovative scent notes, (3) leveraging artificial intelligence (AI), and (4) providing tangible options for creating distinct and personalized olfactory experiences, thereby ensuring readiness to compete and succeed in the diverse future landscapes of the perfume industry.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Strategic Foresight
Science Monitoring
Technology Monitoring
Market Monitoring
Perfume Industry
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دوره 6، شماره 2
فصلنامه تابستان
تابستان 1404
صفحه 241-268

  • تاریخ دریافت 13 اردیبهشت 1404
  • تاریخ بازنگری 29 اردیبهشت 1404
  • تاریخ پذیرش 18 خرداد 1404
  • تاریخ انتشار 01 تیر 1404