نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 بخش حکمرانی، دانشکده حقوق و علوم سیاسی، دانشگاه شیراز، شیراز، ایران
2 کارشناس ارشد معارف اسلامی و تبلیغ، دانشگاه بین‌المللی امام رضا (ع)، مشهد، ایران
3 استادیار گروه مدیریت دولتی، واحد مشهد، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، مشهد، ایران
چکیده
کلیدواژه‌ها
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسندگان [English]
The goal is to determine the scenarios of religion promotion in virtual social networks in the horizon of the next ten years. To scenario bulding, thematic analysis methods, the analytical matrix of the network of impacts and uncertainty, and narrative have been used, and the scenario method has brought unity to the collection of these methods. A total of 40 Tablighi experts, 13 participated in a semi-structured interview and 27 participated in a questionnaire.
By focusing on context information from four areas including; Propagation of religion (9), social networks (15), technological field (8) and socio-cultural field (11) and in total (42) driving forces and key factors related to the future were identified. The 42 variables obtained as the input of the impacts and uncertainty network. With the participation of experts, as a result, "virtual religion" and "diversity of religious propagation tools" are known as elements with critical uncertainty that affect the future space, and based on these two critical uncertainties, four scenarios: (1)co-evolutionary; (2) unilateral; (3)Encountering and(4) empty capacity is narrated with emphasis on the structure of each scenario.
کلیدواژه‌ها [English]
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