Religiosity in contemporary Iranian society, influenced by the rapid cultural and social transformations of recent decades, is undergoing a transition from traditional patterns toward new forms of experience. The present research, focusing on the two prevalent types of traditional religiosity (reliant on institutions, Sharia, and collective rituals) and new-discourse religiosity (reliant on personalized experience and selective choice), studies this transformation in the city of Tehran.

The aim of this study is not only to quantitatively measure the share of each of these two types but also to analyze existing trends and outline their future prospects. This research was conducted using a futures studies approach and employed combined methods of library research, theoretical analysis, and field survey. Quantitative data were collected through a researcher-made questionnaire from 405 residents aged 18 and above in Tehran and analyzed using SPSS software.

The findings indicate that the inclination towards new-discourse religiosity is approximately twice that of traditional religiosity. The present study concludes that Iranian society is on the verge of a profound rearrangement in the role and social standing of religion. This transformation is not merely a statistical change but rather a prelude to the formation of various future scenarios. Accordingly, three probable scenarios have been outlined: 1) the continuation of the current trend and polarization, 2) the intensification of tensions, or 3) institutional adaptation and the reconstruction of the official religious discourse.

It is suggested that the governance structure, by accepting the reality of these transformations, should provide the grounds for critical dialogue, revision in religious education, and diversification of models of religiosity so that, instead of confrontation, it can contribute to the constructive management of this historical transition.