آینده پژوهی انقلاب اسلامی

آینده پژوهی انقلاب اسلامی

ارائه مدل مفهومی جنگ‌های آینده: شناسایی ابعاد و مؤلفه‌های جنگ آینده با رویکرد فراترکیب

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان
1 پژوهشگر و دانشجوی دکتری مهندسی صنایع، دانشکده فنی و مهندسی ، دانشگاه جامع امام حسین ع، تهران، ایران
2 دانشیار مرکز مهندسی سیستم‌ها، دانشکده فنی و مهندسی، دانشگاه جامع امام حسین (ع)، تهران، ایران.
چکیده
تحولات پرشتاب در حوزه فناوری‌های نوین، تغییرات ژئوپلیتیکی و پیچیدگی‌های محیط امنیتی جهانی، موجب شده است که چشم‌انداز جنگ‌های آینده با الگوهای گذشته تفاوت بنیادین داشته باشد. در چنین شرایطی، شناخت ابعاد و مؤلفه‌های جنگ‌های آینده برای برنامه‌ریزی دفاعی، طراحی راهبردهای نظامی و توسعه دکترین‌های نوین ضروری به نظر می‌رسد. پژوهش حاضر با بهره‌گیری از رویکرد فراترکیب و مرور نظام‌مند منابع علمی و اسناد معتبر نظامی، به شناسایی و تحلیل ابعاد و مؤلفه‌های کلیدی جنگ‌های آینده پرداخته است. داده‌های پژوهش از طریق بررسی گسترده متون علمی و گزارش‌های راهبردی استخراج و طی فرایند کدگذاری باز، محوری و انتخابی دسته‌بندی و ترکیب شده‌اند. یافته‌ها نشان می‌دهد که جنگ‌های آینده ماهیتی چندبعدی خواهند داشت و ابعاد مختلفی همچون فناوری‌های تحول‌آفرین، فرماندهی و کنترل، بعد عملیاتی، بعد اطلاعاتی (سایبری و شناختی) و بعد انسانی نقش تعیین‌کننده‌ای ایفا خواهند کرد. در نهایت، بر اساس تجمیع یافته‌های پژوهش، یک مدل مفهومی جامع شامل 5 بعد، 32 مؤلفه و 156 زیرمؤلفه برای جنگ‌های آینده ارائه شده است که می‌تواند مبنایی برای تحلیل‌های آتی در حوزه مطالعات راهبردی و دفاعی قرار گیرد.
کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله English

A Conceptual Model of Future Warfare: Identifying Dimensions and Components through a Meta-Synthesis Approach

نویسندگان English

Saeed Khalili 1
Soheil Emamian 2
1 PhD Student of Industrial Engineering, Imam Hossein Comprehensive University, Tehran, Iran.
2 Associate Professor of Department of Industrial Engineering, Imam Hossein Compressive University, Tehran, Iran.
چکیده English

The accelerating evolution of emerging technologies, shifting geopolitical dynamics, and the growing complexity of the global security environment have fundamentally redefined the nature of future warfare. In this context, identifying the critical dimensions and components of future wars is essential for defense planning, strategic design, and the formulation of next-generation military doctrines.

This study adopts a meta-synthesis methodology, integrating systematic reviews of academic literature and authoritative military documents to extract and synthesize key insights. The data were analyzed through open, axial, and selective coding, enabling the identification of conceptual patterns and relationships across diverse sources.

Findings indicate that future warfare will be inherently multidimensional, characterized by the interplay of transformative technologies, command and control systems, operational dynamics, informational (cyber and cognitive) domains, and the human factor. Based on the integrated analysis, the study proposes a comprehensive conceptual model consisting of five primary dimensions, thirty-two components, and one hundred and fifty-six subcomponents. This model provides a structured foundation for future research in strategic foresight, defense transformation, and military innovation studies.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Future Warfare
Dimensions and Components
Conceptual Model
Meta-synthesis
Coding
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دوره 7، شماره 3
پاییز 1405
پاییز 1405
صفحه 215-259

  • تاریخ دریافت 06 مهر 1404
  • تاریخ بازنگری 22 آبان 1404
  • تاریخ پذیرش 18 شهریور 1405
  • تاریخ انتشار 01 مهر 1405