Over the past four decades, the religiosity of Iran’s middle class has shifted from an institutional and ritual pattern toward an individualistic, selective, and partly secular form of spirituality. This transformation—rooted in the expansion of higher education, the growth of global communications, and identity and cultural changes—has a direct impact on the political capacity of the Islamic Revolution discourse, influencing indicators such as social mobilization capacity, political legitimacy, and cultural cohesion. Adopting a futures studies approach and employing Ken Wilber’s Integral Theory, this research examines changes in religiosity across four quadrants—subjective, behavioral, normative, and institutional—simultaneously. Data have been collected from national and international surveys, media content analysis, and 17 in‑depth interviews, and analyzed using MICMAC software to identify key drivers and critical uncertainties. Findings indicate that alignment of religious and cultural policies with middle-class transformations paves the way for achieving desirable scenarios, whereas continued misalignment increases the risk of weakening the political capacity and social capital of the system.