نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 نویسنده مسئول: استادیار گروه مدیریت بحران، دانشگاه جامع امام حسین(علیه‌السلام)،تهران، ایران
2 دانشجوی دکتری علوم سیاسی، دانشگاه شاهد، تهران، ایران
3 دانشجوی دکتری آیندهپژوهی، دانشگاه جامع امام حسین(علیه‌السلام)، تهران، ایران
چکیده
کلیدواژه‌ها
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسندگان [English]
In today's turbulent world, what has become the focus of attention in the future is the use of the opportunities that lie within it, in order to be resilient and to avoid surprises. This has led many individuals and organizations to always seek to discover the future and take preemptive action to reap its benefits. One of the most important contexts of this view in Iran is the presidential election, which in 2021 became the focus of various currents to reduce or increase public participation. In this article, first, the environment surrounding the participation in the elections of 2021 categories and the drivers of each category have been analyzed. A meta-analysis of elite views based on a review of trends in society and the social space shows that key uncertainties covering other uncertainties are the two factors of "hope and livelihood". This means that each of the drivers can have a positive or negative effect on social hope, as well as on improving or worsening the living conditions of society. Thus, these two play a role as a framework of scenarios. Finally, four scenarios of enthusiastic participation, participation of people to change the situation, negative participation and not to the ballot (minimum participation) have been determined and examined as scenarios of participation in elections.
کلیدواژه‌ها [English]
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