نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 فارغ التحصیل کارشناسی ارشد کارآفرینی دانشگاه تهران
2 استادیار دانشکده حضرت ولی عصر(عج)،دانشگاه جامع امام حسین (ع)
چکیده
کلیدواژهها
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسندگان [English]
Although the history of foresight dates back to the 1940s (Jemala, 2010) its application is expanding as an enhanced interdisciplinary approach to strategic planning. In Iran, strategic foresight has received attention during the last decade, and with the passage of time, its use in public and private organizations is also increasing.
In this study, with the aim of synthesis of published articles on strategic planning and strategic foresight in Iran, in the first stage, a systematic review of the literature, all published articles in the field of foresight and strategic planning in Iran were reviewed. In the second stage, based on the indicators that are used as criteria in this article, 53 articles were selected and reviewed based on Qualitative Research Synthesis method.
Based on the research findings, the gap of strategic foresight articles that have methodically documented the key steps is very significant and we expect the output of strategic foresight to be methodically and systematically strategic planning. Unfortunately, between all of the strategic foresight articles, only 8 percent have presented this output, and one article states that strategic planning was done but not reflected in the article. Other articles suffice to suggest some solutions without mentioning the method of achieving them or are not considered as strategic foresight. (Traditionally, without futures studies, they have planned.)
Finally, the indigenous model of strategic foresight is presented based on the results of meta-analysis; Which includes four stages of framing (by internal and external environment analysis method), horizon scanning (by cross impact analysis method), forecasting (by scenario method) and strategic planning (by SWOT method).
کلیدواژهها [English]