اولویت دهی مشوق‌های قانون حمایت از خانواده و جوانی جمعیت برای برنامه هفتم توسعه در قالب اسناد بالادستی با رویکرد آینده نگاری راهبردی

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 گروه آینده پژوهی، دانشکده حضرت ولی عصر، دانشگاه جامع امام حسین علیه السلام، تهران، ایران

2 استادیارگروه آینده پژوهی، دانشکده حضرت ولی عصر، دانشگاه جامع امام حسین علیه السلام، تهران، ایران

چکیده

هدف: این پژوهش با هدف ، اولویت دهی به مشوق‌های مطروحه در قانون حمایت از خانواده و جوانی جمعیت در قالب اسناد بالادستی با رویکرد آینده نگاری به رشته تحریر درآمده است.

روش: این پژوهش با بهره گیری از سه روش به نتیجه رسیده است.در گام نخست با استفاده از روش‌ فراتحلیل دست به شناخت وضع موجود زده، در گام دوم با مطالعه اسنادی، اسناد موجود در خصوص موضوع را بررسی کرده و در نهایت در گام سوم با استفاده از تکنیک دلفی مشوق‌های کلیدی و مهم را شناسایی کرده است.

یافته‌ها: در این پژوهش بعد از بررسی اسناد بالادستی و شناسایی تاکیدات آنها در خصوص بحث جوانی جمعیت، مشوق‌های مطروحه در قانون احصاء شده و با استفاده از نظرات کارشناسان مشوق‌های کلیدی طی پنج مرحله دلفی انتخاب شدند. در ادامه کار بعد از شناسایی بحران‌های چهارگانه، مشوق‌هایی فارغ از مشوق‌های مطروحه در قانون به سیاستگذار پیشنهاد شد.

نتیجه‌گیری: در این پژوهش سعی شد تا این گزاره نهادینه شود که زمان پایان دادن به شیوه عمل مقطعی و آزمون و خطا در این حوزه به سر آمده و باید با توجه به محدودیت‌های موجود، عوامل موثر به منظور طراحی چارچوبی جامع برای سیاستگذاری استخراج گردد تا به وسیله آن بتوان از این گذرگاه مهم جان سالم بدر برد.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Prioritizing the incentives of the Family and Youth Protection Law for the 7th Development Plan in the form of upstream documents with a strategic foresight approach

نویسندگان [English]

  • ALI KARAMI 1
  • Jamal Aberoumand 2
1 Department of Future Studies, Hazrat Wali Asr College, Imam Hossein University, Tehran, Iran
2 Department of Future Studies, Hazrat Wali Asr College, Imam Hossein University, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

Purpose: This research has been written with the aim of prioritizing the incentives proposed in the family and youth protection law in the form of upstream documents with a strategic foresight approach.

Method: This research has reached its conclusion in three steps. In the first step, the meta-analysis method was used to understand the current situation, in the second step, by document study, the existing documents regarding the subject were examined, and finally, in the third step, by using It has identified key and important incentives from the Delphi technique.

Findings: In this research, after reviewing the upstream documents and identifying their emphasis on the issue of population youth, the incentives proposed in the law were counted and using the opinions of experts, key incentives were selected through five Delphi steps. In the continuation of the work, after identifying the four crises, incentives were proposed to the policy maker apart from the incentives proposed in the law.

Conclusion: In this research, an attempt was made to institutionalize the proposition that the time has come to end the method of cross-sectional action and trial and error in this field, and considering the existing limitations, effective factors should be extracted in order to design a comprehensive framework for policy making. By means of it, you can survive this important crossing.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • strategic foresight
  • 7th development plan
  • upstream documents
  • population youth

Smiley face

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