تأمّلی بر روش‌شناسی آینده پژوهی

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشکده مدیریت و حسابداری، دانشگاه بوعلی سینا، همدان

2 عضو هیات علمی مرکز پژوهشهای مجلس شورای اسلامی

چکیده

هدف: تاکنون بسیاری از متون معتبر آینده‌پژوهی به ضرورت استفاده از روش‌های متنوع در تحقیقات آینده-پژوهی اشاره کرده‌اند، اما اغلب شیوه‌ی کاربستِ آن را به ابتکارِ محقّق واگذار کرده‌اند و بدین لحاظ شاهد نوعی درهم‌ریختگی در این حوزه است. لذا این پژوهش با هدف کاربست راهبرد روش تحقیق ترکیبی یا زاویه‌بندی در چارچوب مطالعات آینده پژوهانه ارایه شده است.

روش: این پژوهش از دید هدف نظری و رویکرد آن، تطبیقی، تحلیلی و بدیهه‌گرایی است، همچنین از دید گردآوری داده‌ها از نوع تحلیلی- اکتشافی است

یافته‌ها: در این نوشتار روش‌‌های رایج در آینده‌‌پژوهی با نیم نگاهی به کاربردهایِ متصور برای آنها در حوزه‌های نظامی، مرور شد و از رهگذر لزوم تکثّرگرایی در میان رشته‌‌ها و به کمک راهبرد تحقیقات زاویه‌‌بندی، سامانی برای روشهای متکثّرِ کمّی و کیفیِ مستعمل در آینده‌پژوهی ارایه شد و سعی شد، این سامان به دوگانه ی روش‌های تجریدی (وحیانی) و تجربی تعمیم یابد.

نتیجه‌گیری: در این مقاله نشان داده شد که بهره‌گیری از رویکرد زاویه‌بندی، به افزایش صحت و کیفیت پژوهش‌هایِ آینده‌پژوهی می‌انجامد. همچنین با الهام‌گیری از مثلث‌بندی، ارتکاظاتی برای آمیختن عقل و نقل در هندسه‌ی معرفت دینی انجام شد که پیشتر سابقه ای از آن در دسترس محققین نبوده است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

A reflection on futures studies methodology

نویسندگان [English]

  • amirhosein rahbar 1
  • alireza nasresfahani 2
1 Faculty of Management and Accounting, Bu-Ali Sina University, hamedan
2 Member of the academic staff of the Research Center of the Islamic Council
چکیده [English]

Objective: So far, many of the reliable future studies texts have pointed out the necessity of using various methods in future studies research, but they have often left the method of its application to the initiative of the researcher, thus witnessing a kind of confusion. The spill is in this area. Therefore, this research is presented with the aim of applying the strategy of mixed or triangled research in the framework of futures studies research.

Method: This research is theoretical in point of view of its goal and Its approach is comparative, analytical and intuitive, and also from the point of view of data collection, it is analytical-exploratory.

Findings: In this article, common methods in future studies were reviewed with a glimpse of their intended applications in military fields, and through the necessity of pluralism among disciplines and with the help of the triangle research strategy, a system for quantitative and qualitative methods used in future research was presented. And it was tried to generalize this system to both abstract (revelation) and experimental methods.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Futures Studies
  • Islam
  • Army
  • Mixed Research Method
  • triangulation

Smiley face

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آینده پژوهی انقلاب اسلامی
دوره 5، شماره 1 - شماره پیاپی 16
فصلنامه بهار
فروردین 1403
صفحه 253-283

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سابقه مقاله

  • تاریخ دریافت: 03 مهر 1402
  • تاریخ بازنگری: 02 آذر 1402
  • تاریخ پذیرش: 21 بهمن 1402
  • تاریخ انتشار: 27 اسفند 1402

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