تأمّلی بر روش‌شناسی آینده پژوهی

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشکده مدیریت و حسابداری، دانشگاه بوعلی سینا، همدان

2 عضو هیات علمی مرکز پژوهشهای مجلس شورای اسلامی

چکیده

هدف: تاکنون بسیاری از متون معتبر آینده‌پژوهی به ضرورت استفاده از روش‌های متنوع در تحقیقات آینده-پژوهی اشاره کرده‌اند، اما اغلب شیوه‌ی کاربستِ آن را به ابتکارِ محقّق واگذار کرده‌اند و بدین لحاظ شاهد نوعی درهم‌ریختگی در این حوزه است. لذا این پژوهش با هدف کاربست راهبرد روش تحقیق ترکیبی یا زاویه‌بندی در چارچوب مطالعات آینده پژوهانه ارایه شده است.

روش: این پژوهش از دید هدف نظری و رویکرد آن، تطبیقی، تحلیلی و بدیهه‌گرایی است، همچنین از دید گردآوری داده‌ها از نوع تحلیلی- اکتشافی است

یافته‌ها: در این نوشتار روش‌‌های رایج در آینده‌‌پژوهی با نیم نگاهی به کاربردهایِ متصور برای آنها در حوزه‌های نظامی، مرور شد و از رهگذر لزوم تکثّرگرایی در میان رشته‌‌ها و به کمک راهبرد تحقیقات زاویه‌‌بندی، سامانی برای روشهای متکثّرِ کمّی و کیفیِ مستعمل در آینده‌پژوهی ارایه شد و سعی شد، این سامان به دوگانه ی روش‌های تجریدی (وحیانی) و تجربی تعمیم یابد.

نتیجه‌گیری: در این مقاله نشان داده شد که بهره‌گیری از رویکرد زاویه‌بندی، به افزایش صحت و کیفیت پژوهش‌هایِ آینده‌پژوهی می‌انجامد. همچنین با الهام‌گیری از مثلث‌بندی، ارتکاظاتی برای آمیختن عقل و نقل در هندسه‌ی معرفت دینی انجام شد که پیشتر سابقه ای از آن در دسترس محققین نبوده است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

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آینده پژوهی انقلاب اسلامی
دوره 5، شماره 1
فصلنامه بهار
فروردین 1403
صفحه 253-283

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سابقه مقاله

  • تاریخ دریافت: 03 مهر 1402
  • تاریخ بازنگری: 02 بهمن 1402
  • تاریخ پذیرش: 21 بهمن 1402

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