آینده نگاری مدیریت املاک بر بستر فناوری‌های جدید در صنعت مسکن ایران با بکارگیری رویکرد سناریو نویسی

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشگاه علم وصنعت

2 دانشگاه علم وصنعت ایران

چکیده

بازار املاک و مستغلات یک از بزرگترین بخش‌های اقتصادی در ایران می‌باشد، که همواره مورد توجه دولتمردان بوده است، این بازار یکی از چرخ‌ها و موتورهای اصلی اقتصاد ایران محسوب می‌شود، رکود این بازار اثرات زیان باری به زندگی مردم و بخش‌های مختلف اقتصاد وارد می‌کند، از طرفی دیگر رشد و توسعه بخش املاک و مستغلات سبب رشد اقتصادی و رشد و توسعه سایر صنایع مرتبط با بحث مستغلات می‌گردد، از آنجا که بخش املاک و مستغلات و هر آنچه که در این بازار به وقوع می‌پیوندد تاثیر بسازایی در وضعیت کشور دارد، بحث مدیریت صحیح این بازار از اهمیت بسیار بالایی برخوردار است. این پژوهش به آینده نگاری حضور فناوری های جدید(زنجیره بلوک) در این حوزه و نحوه گذار از مدیریت سنتی به مدیریت مدرن این بازار درآینده می‌پردازد، در این پژوهش بر اساس نظرات نخبگان عوامل موثر در مدیریت املاک و مستغلات استخراج  و سپس با استفاده از رویکرد تحلیل متقابل، داده‌ها وارد در نرم افزار میک مک شده و پیشران ‌های مهم و کلیدی شناسایی شد در مرحله بعدبر اساس پرسشنامه‌ای که توسط نخبگان وارد نرم افزار سناریو ویزارد گردید سناریو‌های محتمل بر اساس پیشران‌های کلیدی بیان گردید و در قسمت آخر به بررسی فرصت ها و چالش ها و مدل پیشنهادی پژوهشگر پرداخته شده است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Foresight of real estate management based on new technologies in Iran's housing industry using the scenario writing approach

نویسندگان [English]

  • mohammadreza masoumi 1
  • javad mashayekh 2
  • rahim khanizad 2
1 Iran University of Science and Technology
2 Iran University of Science and Technology
چکیده [English]

The real estate market is one of the largest economic sectors in Iran, which has always been the focus of the government, this market is considered one of the main wheels and engines of the Iranian economy, the stagnation of this market has harmful effects on people's lives and various sectors of the economy. On the other hand, the growth and development of the real estate sector causes economic growth and the growth and development of other industries related to real estate.Since the real estate sector and everything that happens in this market has a significant impact on the state of the country, the issue of proper management of this market is very important. This research deals with the future forecasting of the presence of new technologies (block chain) in this field and how to transition from traditional management to modern management of this market in the future.In this research, based on the opinions of the elites, the effective factors in real estate management were extracted, and then, using the cross-analysis approach, the data was entered into the MicMac software, and the important and key drivers were identified. In the next step, based on the questionnaire that was entered into the scenario wizard software by the elites, the possible scenarios were expressed based on the key drivers, and in the last part, opportunities and challenges and the model proposed by the researcher were discussed.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • futures studies
  • real estate
  • block chain

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آینده پژوهی انقلاب اسلامی
دوره 5، شماره 1 - شماره پیاپی 16
فصلنامه بهار
فروردین 1403
صفحه 189-222

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سابقه مقاله

  • تاریخ دریافت: 28 آذر 1402
  • تاریخ بازنگری: 26 دی 1402
  • تاریخ پذیرش: 21 بهمن 1402
  • تاریخ انتشار: 27 اسفند 1402

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