آینده پژوهی انقلاب اسلامی

آینده پژوهی انقلاب اسلامی

آینده‌نگاری راهبردی اقتصاد با تاکید بر بیانیه گام دوم انقلاب اسلامی از منظر رهبر معظم انقلاب اسلامی حضرت آیت‌الله خامنه‌ای (مد ظله‌العالی)

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان
1 استادیار گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده‌ اقتصاد و مدیریت، دانشگاه سیستان و بلوچستان، زاهدان، ایران.
2 دانشیار گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده‌ اقتصاد و مدیریت، دانشگاه سیستان و بلوچستان، زاهدان، ایران.
3 استادیار، گروه معارف اسلامی، دانشکدۀ الهیات، حقوق و معارف اسلامی، دانشگاه سیستان و بلوچستان، زاهدان، ایران
چکیده
در چند سال اخیر رهبر معظم انقلاب با طرح اقتصاد مقاومتی یک آینده نگاری راهبردی اقتصادی ارائه داشته اند. ایشان فرمودند. عملکرد ضعیف اقتصاد، کشور را از بیرون و درون دچار چالش می کند. چالش بیرونی تحریم است که در صورت اصلاح مشکل درونی، کم خواهد شد. با توجه به این موضوع در این مطالعه با استفاده از مدل رگرسیون فازی تاثیر این چالش ها را بر ضعیف و یا قوی کردن اقتصاد بررسی شد. جامعه آماری تحقیق در ارتباط با بیانیه گام دوم انقلاب طی سال های 1357 تا 1399 در نظر گرفته شده است. نتایج نشان می دهند که واردات، بیکاری، وابستگی به درآمد های نفتی، تحریم ها، نابرابری درآمد، افزایش اندازه دولت در اقتصاد، تورم و کاهش استفاده از جمعیت فعال از جمله عواملی هستند که به ترتیب بر تضعیف اقتصاد تاثیر بسیار زیادی دارند. همچنین چالش های مذکور پس از سال 1390 تاثیر قابل توجه ای بر رشد اقتصادی گذاشته اند.که در صورت بکارگیری سیاست های مناسب و اجرای صحیح آنها در راستای بیانیه گام دوم انقلاب اسلامی که مورد تاکید حضرت امام خامنه ای است. پهنای راست رشد اقتصادی نسبت به روند فعلی افزایش قابل توجهی خواهد داشت و اقتصاد قوی خواهد شد. نتیجه کلی این مطالعه آن است که درونی کردن اقتصاد یک آینده‌نگاری راهبردی در اقتصاد ارائه می کند که علاوه بر نسل فعلی، نسل های آینده را از گزند آسیب های اقتصادی در امان دارد.
کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله English

Strategic Foresight of the Economy with Emphasis on the Second Step Statement of the Islamic Revolution from the Viewpoints of the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution, Ayatollah Khamenei

نویسندگان English

Reza Ashraf Ganjoei 1
Marziyeh Esfandiari 2
Abolhasan Barani 3
1 Assistant Professor, Economics Department, Faculty of Economics and Management, University of Sistan and Baluchestan, Zahedan, Iran. Email: reza_ash@eco.usb.ac.ir.
2 Associate Professor, Economics Department, Faculty of Economics and Management, University of Sistan and Baluchestan, Zahedan, Iran. Email: m.esfandiari@eco.usb.ac.ir.
3 Assistant Professor, Department of Islamic Teachings, Faculty of Theology, University of Sistan and Baluchestan, Zahedan, Iran. Email: barani@theo.usb.ac.ir.
چکیده English

In recent years, the Supreme Leader of the Revolution has presented a strategic economic foresight through the concept of resistance economy. He stated that weak economic performance challenges the country from both external and internal fronts. The external challenge is sanctions, which will diminish if internal issues are addressed. Considering this, this study examines the impact of these challenges on weakening or strengthening the economy using a fuzzy regression model. The statistical population of the research is based on the second step statement of the Revolution from 1979 to 2020. The results indicate that imports, unemployment, dependence on oil revenues, sanctions, income inequality, the expansion of government size in the economy, inflation, and reduced utilization of the active population are among the factors that significantly weaken the economy in that order. Furthermore, the mentioned challenges have had a considerable impact on economic growth since 2011. If appropriate policies are implemented correctly in line with the second step statement of the Islamic Revolution, as emphasized by Ayatollah Khamenei, the trajectory of economic growth will significantly improve compared to the current trend, leading to a stronger economy. The overall conclusion of this study is that internalizing the economy provides a strategic foresight that protects not only the current generation but also future generations from the harms of economic vulnerabilities.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Strategic Foresight of the Economy
Ayatollah Khamenei
Second Step Statement of the Islamic Revolution
Strong Economy
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دوره 6، شماره 3
فصلنامه پاییز
پاییز 1404
صفحه 39-69

  • تاریخ دریافت 28 آذر 1403
  • تاریخ بازنگری 13 دی 1403
  • تاریخ پذیرش 01 مهر 1404
  • تاریخ انتشار 01 مهر 1404