نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 دکتری اقتصاد بین الملل، دانشکده مدیریت و اقتصاد، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران
2 دکتری اقتصاد مالی و پولی، دانشکده اقتصاد، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران.
3 کارشناسی ارشد مدیریت اجرایی، دانشکده مدیریت، دانشگاه پیام نور، گرمسار، ایران.
چکیده
کلیدواژه‌ها
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسندگان [English]
This study aims to conduct a forward-looking analysis of the major economic and financial risks facing Iranian knowledge-based companies and to design adaptive insurance and policy responses aligned with possible future scenarios. The research is exploratory–analytical in nature and employs a combination of three structured foresight tools: STEEP environmental analysis, structural analysis of variables using MicMac, and strategic scenario planning. Initially, 50 key variables across economic, institutional, financial, technological, and social domains were identified, from which 20 critical variables were selected for structural analysis.The results revealed that three driving forces—the effectiveness of innovation policymaking institutions, the flexibility of government financial support policies, and the quality of regulatory frameworks—play the most influential roles in shaping the future of the knowledge-based ecosystem. Based on these drivers, four strategic scenarios were developed: Leading Coalition, Fragmented Dynamism, Failed Effort, and Systemic Collapse, each with distinct implications for resilience, investment attraction, and the failure rate of innovation projects.Subsequently, a policy package is proposed including: project failure insurance, a multi-criteria allocation algorithm for financial support, performance-based R&D tax incentives, a unified digital portal for support services, and robust evaluation mechanisms for policy effectiveness. These measures aim to transform Iran’s vulnerable innovation ecosystem into a dynamic, resilient, and future-oriented system capable of withstanding uncertainty and sustaining technological progress.
کلیدواژه‌ها [English]
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