آینده پژوهی انقلاب اسلامی

آینده پژوهی انقلاب اسلامی

تحلیل آینده‌محور ریسک‌های اقتصادی و مالی شرکت‌های دانش‌بنیان ایران: چارچوبی برای سناریونویسی و سیاست‌گذاری بیمه‌ای

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان
1 دکتری اقتصاد بین الملل، دانشکده مدیریت و اقتصاد، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران
2 دکتری اقتصاد مالی و پولی، دانشکده اقتصاد، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران.
3 کارشناسی ارشد مدیریت اجرایی، دانشکده مدیریت، دانشگاه پیام نور، گرمسار، ایران.
چکیده
هدف پژوهش حاضر، تحلیل آینده‌محور ریسک‌های کلان اقتصادی و مالی شرکت‌های دانش‌بنیان ایران و طراحی سناریوها و سیاست‌های بیمه‌ای سازگار با وضعیت‌های مختلف آینده است. این پژوهش از نوع اکتشافی–تحلیلی است و از تلفیق سه ابزار اصلی تحلیل محیط کلان (STEEP)، تحلیل ساختاری متغیرها (MicMac) و سناریونویسی راهبردی بهره می‌برد. ابتدا ۵۰ متغیر کلیدی از حوزه‌های اقتصادی، نهادی، بیمه‌ای، فناورانه و اجتماعی شناسایی و سپس ۲۰ متغیر تأثیرگذار برای تحلیل ساختاری انتخاب شد.نتایج نشان داد سه پیشران اصلی شامل «کارآمدی نهاد سیاست‌گذار نوآوری»، «انعطاف‌پذیری سیاست‌های حمایتی مالی دولت» و «کیفیت تنظیم مقررات حمایتی» بیشترین نقش را در تعیین مسیرهای آینده اکوسیستم دانش‌بنیان ایفا می‌کنند. بر پایه این پیشران‌ها، چهار سناریوی راهبردی شامل «ائتلاف پیشرو»، «پویایی مقطعی»، «تلاش ناکام» و «سقوط نظام‌مند» ترسیم شد که هر یک پیامدهای متفاوتی برای تاب‌آوری، جذب سرمایه و نرخ شکست پروژه‌های فناورانه به همراه دارند. در ادامه، بسته‌ای سیاستی شامل طراحی بیمه شکست پروژه، الگوریتم تخصیص منابع مالی بر مبنای شاخص‌های نوآوری، مشوق‌های مالیاتی عملکردمحور، ایجاد پورتال یکپارچه حمایت‌های دانش‌بنیان، و سازوکارهای پایش و ارزیابی اثربخشی سیاست‌ها پیشنهاد شده است. این اقدامات می‌توانند زمینه‌ساز عبور از اکوسیستم شکننده فعلی به سوی یک نظام نوآور، پیش‌بینی‌پذیر و مقاوم در برابر عدم قطعیت‌های آتی باشند.
کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله English

Futures-Oriented Analysis of Economic and Financial Risks Facing Iranian Knowledge-Based Firms: A Framework for Scenario Development and Insurance Policy Design

نویسندگان English

Fatemeh Teimoora 1
Mahdieh Akbari Roshan 2
mohammad Dibaee 3
1 PhD in International Economics, Faculty of Management and Economics, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran
2 Ph.D. in Monetary and Financial Economics, Faculty of Economics, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.
3 M.A. in Executive Management, Payame Noor University, Garmsar, Iran.
چکیده English

This study aims to conduct a forward-looking analysis of the major economic and financial risks facing Iranian knowledge-based companies and to design adaptive insurance and policy responses aligned with possible future scenarios. The research is exploratory–analytical in nature and employs a combination of three structured foresight tools: STEEP environmental analysis, structural analysis of variables using MicMac, and strategic scenario planning. Initially, 50 key variables across economic, institutional, financial, technological, and social domains were identified, from which 20 critical variables were selected for structural analysis.The results revealed that three driving forces—the effectiveness of innovation policymaking institutions, the flexibility of government financial support policies, and the quality of regulatory frameworks—play the most influential roles in shaping the future of the knowledge-based ecosystem. Based on these drivers, four strategic scenarios were developed: Leading Coalition, Fragmented Dynamism, Failed Effort, and Systemic Collapse, each with distinct implications for resilience, investment attraction, and the failure rate of innovation projects.Subsequently, a policy package is proposed including: project failure insurance, a multi-criteria allocation algorithm for financial support, performance-based R&D tax incentives, a unified digital portal for support services, and robust evaluation mechanisms for policy effectiveness. These measures aim to transform Iran’s vulnerable innovation ecosystem into a dynamic, resilient, and future-oriented system capable of withstanding uncertainty and sustaining technological progress.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Foresight
Knowledge-Based Companies
Macroeconomic Risks
Scenario Planning
Adaptive Insurance Policies
Ali, M., & Park, H. (2021). Barriers to innovation in SMEs: A systematic review of empirical studies. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 167, 120734. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2021.120734
Andersson, T., & Dahlman, C. (2001). The Main Challenges and Guidelines for Future Cluster Policies. In The Cluster Policies Whitebook. IKED - International Organisation for Knowledge Economy and Enterprise Development. https://lucris.lub.lu.se/ws/files/5954460/1304064.pdf
Andersson, T., & Dahlman, C. J. (2001). Korea and the Knowledge-Based Economy: Making the Transition. OECD Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1787/9789264194788-en
Bpifrance. (2021). Public Insurance Tools for Innovation Failure: Overview and Performance. Paris: Bpifrance. Retrieved from https://www.bpifrance.fr
Enterprise Singapore. (2022). Grants and Schemes for Tech Enterprises. Retrieved from https://www.enterprisesg.gov.sg
Fleckenstein, T. (2023). Dualism, education and the knowledge economy: Comparing Germany and South Korea. Social Policy & Administration, 57(2), 234–251. https://doi.org/10.1111/spol.12896
Fleckenstein, T. (2023). Industrial policy and the rise of the knowledge economy in Germany. In U. Hilpert (Ed.), Routledge Handbook of Politics and Technology (pp. 40–52). Routledge.
Godet, M., & Durance, P. (2011). Strategic Foresight for Corporate and Regional Development. Paris: Dunod.
Hervas-Oliver, J. L., Sempere-Ripoll, F., & Boronat-Moll, C. (2021). SMEs’ performance under the lens of dynamic capabilities: A systematic literature review. Journal of Business Research, 132, 519–533. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbusres.2021.04.046
Insurance Research Center. (2025). Identification and categorization of risks in knowledge-based companies, innovative and early-stage tech firms, and mechanisms for risk management through insurance (Research Project No. 188). Insurance Research Center, Department of Emerging Insurance Technologies. [In Persian]
Iran National Innovation Fund. (2021). Performance Report on Financial Supports for Knowledge-Based Companies. Tehran: Monitoring and Evaluation Department.
Islamic Parliament of Iran. (2010). Law on the Support of Knowledge-based Companies and the Commercialization of Innovations and Inventions. Official Gazette of the Islamic Republic of Iran, No. 19016, 2010/10/27. [In Persian]
Kay, J., & King, M. (2021). Radical Uncertainty: Decision-making for an unknowable future. Bridge Street Press, Soc 58, 72–76. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12115-021-00572-0
Khosravi, N., & Amini, S. (2020). Challenges in implementing the law on supporting knowledge-based companies in Iran. Science and Technology Policy Quarterly, 12(2), 27–45.
Lee, S. J., & Ko, Y. (2019). Evaluating South Korea’s R&D tax incentive schemes: Evidence-based design and adjustment. Science and Public Policy, 46(1), 64–78. https://doi.org/10.1093/scipol/scy042
Lehr, T., Lorenz, U., Willert, M., & Rohrbeck, R. (2017). Scenario-based strategizing: Advancing the applicability in strategists’ teams. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 124, 214–224. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2016.06.027
Mahdavi-Parsa, M., Soleimani, A., & Rezaei, N. (2022). Identifying key risks of knowledge-based companies in Iran. Science and Technology Policy Quarterly, 14(2), 67–89.
Miller, R., Poli, R., & Rossel, P. (2018). The discipline of anticipation: Exploring key issues. In R. Poli (Ed.), Handbook of Anticipation: Theoretical and Applied Aspects of the Use of Future in Decision Making (pp. 1–24). Cham: Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-91554-8_111-1
North, D. C. (1990). Institutions, Institutional Change and Economic Performance. Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511808678
OECD. (2016). Framework for Policy Evaluation of Innovation Programs. Paris: OECD Publishing.
OECD. (2023). OECD Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2023: Navigating Global Challenges. Paris: OECD Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1787/3e8b8860-en
OECD. (2023). OECD Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2023. Paris: OECD Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1787/sti_outlook-2023-en
OECD. (2023). SME and Entrepreneurship Outlook 2023. OECD Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1787/342b8564-en
Research Center of the Islamic Consultative Assembly. (2022). Comparative Review of Innovation Support Systems in Iran and Selected Countries (Policy Report No. 12843). Tehran: Office of Economic Studies.
Rohrbeck, R., & Kum, M. E. (2018). Corporate foresight and its impact on firm performance: A longitudinal analysis. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 129, 105–116. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2017.12.013
Schwarz, J. O., Ram, C., & Rohrbeck, R. (2019). Combining scenario planning and business wargaming to better anticipate future competitive dynamics. Futures, 105, 133–142. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2018.09.005
Supreme Council of the Cultural Revolution. (2010). Comprehensive Scientific Map of Iran. Secretariat of the Supreme Council, Tehran. [In Persian]
van der Heijden, K. (1996). Scenarios: The Art of Strategic Conversation. Chichester: John Wiley & Sons.
Vice-Presidency for Science, Technology and Knowledge-Based Economy. (2023). Law on Supporting Knowledge-Based Companies and Commercialization of Innovations and Inventions. Tehran: Center for Strategic Technologies Development.
Vinnova – Swedish Innovation Agency. (2020). Innovation Policy Evaluation Framework. Stockholm: Government of Sweden.
Wilkinson, A., Kupers, R., & Mangalagiu, D. (2013). How plausibility-based scenario practices are grappling with complexity to appreciate and address 21st century challenges. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 80(4), 699–710. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2012.10.031
World Economic Forum. (2022). Global Risks Report 2022 (17th ed.). Geneva: World Economic Forum. https://www.weforum.org/reports/global-risks-report-2022/
World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO). (2024). World Intellectual Property Report 2024: Making Innovation Policy Work for Development. Geneva: WIPO. https://www.wipo.int/en/web/world-ip-report/2024/
دوره 6، شماره 3
فصلنامه پاییز
پاییز 1404
صفحه 213-246

  • تاریخ دریافت 29 اردیبهشت 1404
  • تاریخ بازنگری 14 مرداد 1404
  • تاریخ پذیرش 29 مرداد 1404
  • تاریخ انتشار 01 مهر 1404