نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 دانشگاه عالی دفاع ملی
2 استادیار، دانشگاه علوم انتظامی امین، تهران. ایران
3 دانشیار، دانشگاه جامع امام حسین (ع)، تهران. ایران
4 دکتری مهندسی سیستم های فرهنگی، دانشگاه جامع امام حسین (ع). تهران. ایران
چکیده
کلیدواژهها
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسندگان [English]
This study examines the role of religious hey'ats in strengthening Ummah-Nation unity during Iran's 12-Day Sacred Defense (1404) and presents a strategic framework for managing future crises up to the horizon of 1420. Using a mixed-method approach of Grounded Theory and Future Studies, the Hey'at-Centered Integration Pattern (HIP) was derived from 37 in-depth interviews and field observations. The pattern includes six components (causal conditions, core phenomenon, contexts, intervening conditions, strategies, consequences), demonstrating that hey'ats, by relying on "Ashura'i zeal" and integrating Islamic-Iranian identity, met 89% of critical neighborhood needs and evolved into national resilient organizations. Future-oriented analysis identified key drivers (digitalization, grassroots networks, discursive cohesion) and uncertainties (hybrid warfare, economic resilience, cultural infiltration), leading to the design of four scenarios. The "Wave Breaker" scenario, with 92% alignment with hybrid threats and economic justification, was prioritized. Delphi panels (κ=0.86) confirmed that the discursive cohesion of hey'ats was the most effective factor in neutralizing enemy rumors. The study offers executive recommendations, including developing digital infrastructure for hey'ats, institutionalizing the HIP model, and transforming husseiniyas into "smart resistance bases." By documenting the transformation of hey'ats from traditional institutions to architects of the field, this research provides an operational framework for enhancing national resilience against hybrid threats up to 1420 and demonstrates its potential for generalization to the Islamic world.
کلیدواژهها [English]
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